KOSPI Rebounds on Rotation Despite YMTC IPO, Nvidia Jitters

* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an AI-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six tailored news items for each reader type.

1. KOSPI Turns Higher After Intraday Drop of Over 4%, Closes Near 6,740

Summary: The KOSPI fell to 6,408.82 before rebounding to 6,742.74, closing up 0.68% from the previous session. The decline began as U.S. semiconductor stocks such as SanDisk (down 6.5%) and Micron (down 5.8%) plunged amid caution ahead of Nvidia's earnings and news of YMTC's IPO, while disappointment over Samsung Electronics' shareholder returns added to selling. In the afternoon, as long-term interest rates eased on expectations of expanded U.S. Treasury bond buybacks and liquidity supply, retail and institutional investors both stepped in to buy on the dip, reversing the mood. Analysts noted that rotation spread beyond semiconductors to Samsung Biologics, Hyundai Motor, financial stocks and cosmetics stocks.

2. Short-Selling Concentrated on Samsung Electronics Despite Large Shareholder Returns

Summary: Short-selling of Samsung Electronics on the 24th reached 1.0175 trillion won in value (8.81% of trading), the fourth-highest level of the year, laying bare market disappointment despite the announcement of share buybacks. The assessment that a dividend-centered shareholder return structure, rather than buybacks and cancellations, fell short of expectations translated into concentrated short-selling. SK hynix (000660) also saw its short-selling ratio remain above 1.5 times the annual average of 2.41% for four trading days after its buyback. With margin loan balances surging to 32.6282 trillion won, warnings have emerged that the possibility of a chain of forced liquidations, should external variables such as the Jackson Hole meeting widen, could amplify downward pressure.

3. Targeting IPO-Bound OpenAI and Anthropic, U.S. Investors Bet on the 'Model Ecosystem'

Summary: Harbor Capital unveiled five AI value-chain ETFs (OAIW, ANTW, XAIW, MTAW, DEPW) centered on OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, Meta and Google DeepMind, making visible a trend of segmenting AI investment by "model ecosystem." ANTW holds Alphabet (8.8%), Amazon (6.9%) and TeraWulf (10.2%), with capital and strategic partners accounting for 31.3%, while OAIW includes SoftBank and Microsoft. SK hynix appears in four of the five ETFs (ANTW 5.0%, OAIW 4.8%, DEPW 3.0%, MTAW 2.2%), standing out as a common holding cutting across AI models. Analysts said that because ecosystem-type ETFs are centered on listed companies, they struggle to directly reflect rising valuations of unlisted firms, so a selective approach that accounts for the difference from direct-holding ETFs is needed.

4. SK Innovation to Absorb Separator Unit SKIET

Summary: SK Innovation decided to absorb SKIET effective January 1 next year, marking the start of restructuring in its electric-vehicle materials business. SKIET was pushed to a point where maintaining an independent corporate structure became difficult, swinging to an operating loss of 290 billion won in 2024 followed by losses of 246 billion won in 2025 and 136 billion won in the first half of this year. The merger ratio is 1 to 0.1174540, allotting 0.11 SK Innovation shares per SKIET share. After the merger, SK Innovation plans to expand a new separator business for energy storage systems (ESS), and analysts said it is worth watching whether consolidation accelerates within the secondary-battery materials sector.

5. 79% of Experts Expect August Rate Hold; Bond Market Sentiment Recovers Slightly

Summary: A survey by the Korea Financial Investment Association found that 79 of 100 bond-market professionals expect the base rate to be held at the Monetary Policy Board meeting on the 27th, a striking reversal from last month's survey, in which 66% forecast a hike. While rising household debt and inflation pressure remain factors for a hike, the decline in the exchange rate and rising market rates are seen as tilting the balance toward a hold. The composite BMSI rose 3.3 points to 89.5 from 86.2 the previous month, and the rate-outlook BMSI jumped 15 points to 99.0 from 84.0, with expectations for no change widening to 69% from 56%. With uncertainty remaining over the Korea-U.S. monetary policy path ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting and the September FOMC, it could act as an additional variable for the stock market.

6. Corporate Sentiment Turns Positive; September BSI Reaches 102

Summary: The September BSI outlook came in at 102.0, crossing the neutral line for the first time in six months, and it was the first time in four years and 11 months, since October 2021, that both manufacturing (101.7) and non-manufacturing (102.4) posted positive outlooks simultaneously. Six of 10 manufacturing sectors, including pharmaceuticals (125.0), wood and furniture (116.7) and textiles (115.4), exceeded the neutral line, while wholesale and retail (115.6) was also strong on expectations of Chuseok demand. The stabilization of the exchange rate, from a second-quarter average of 1,501.9 won to 1,417.0 won in August, also contributed to improved corporate sentiment. Still, some sectors, such as construction (97.6) and leisure and dining (92.3), remained below the neutral line, leaving a clear divergence across industries.