U.S. Treasury Chief Invokes Pascal's Wager Against Iran

Opinion|
|
By Hong Byung-moon (Commentary)hbm@sedaily.com
||
Blaise Pascal - Seoul Economic Daily Opinion News from South Korea
Blaise Pascal

At high altitudes, a soccer ball travels farther than it does at lower elevations. The same holds for a golf ball. On courses above 3,000 meters, almost anyone becomes a long hitter. The higher the altitude, the lower the air pressure — and the less air resistance. The first person to prove that air pressure falls with altitude was Blaise Pascal, the French mathematician, physicist and philosopher. The hectopascal (hPa), the basic unit of atmospheric pressure, takes its name from him. Pascal's principle — that force applied to a small surface can lift a heavy object resting on a larger one — is what makes hydraulic brakes in cars work.

Pascal is also known for "Pensées," counted among the classics of Western thought. After he died in 1662 at the age of 39, his family gathered the unpublished notes found in his room and published them as a book. Lines such as "man is a thinking reed" and "had Cleopatra's nose been shorter, the whole face of the world would have changed" are metaphors recognized around the world. "Pensées" also contains the religious argument known as Pascal's wager. Because it is impossible to know whether God exists, Pascal held, one has no choice but to bet on the question. Choose to believe, and if God exists you gain heaven, while if God does not exist you lose little in particular. Choose not to believe, and if God does not exist there is no problem, but if God does exist you suffer the worst possible loss. That was his logic.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned Pascal's wager from "Pensées" in a Financial Times opinion piece on the 23rd. Describing the sanctions on Iran that took effect on the 24th as the most powerful financial offensive in history, he warned that Pascal's wager would apply to Iran's lifeline as well. The message: countries that do not side with the United States will face U.S. retaliation, making that an irrational choice. Unable to find an exit from the war with Iran, an impatient Washington is forcing an unreasonable either-or on the international community. This is a moment that calls urgently for a careful diplomatic strategy capable of protecting South Korea's economic and security interests.

Blaise Pascal - Seoul Economic Daily Opinion News from South Korea
Blaise Pascal

Original reporting by Hong Byung-moon (Commentary) for Seoul Economic Daily.

AI-translated from Korean. Quotes from foreign sources are based on Korean-language reports and may not reflect exact original wording.

Watch · Seoul Economic Daily

More →
3:44

AI KEY

Preview
Korean Corporate Intelligence HubKOSPI · KOSDAQ · 12 sectors

A live, cap-weighted view of every KOSPI and KOSDAQ sector, with same-day Korean reporting distilled by company — built for foreign investors, correspondents and analysts who need to scan Korea before the next session.

Korea Company Atlas

Preview
Market Ontology · The Feedback LoopKFTC 2025 · 92 groups · 121,954 articles

An English ontology of the Korean market — how companies, the media, the government and the National Assembly move each other in a loop. Korea's named controlling persons and designated business groups are a mechanism, not a risk to be priced blind.

SIGNAL

Now live
English Edition · Capital MarketsM&A · IPO · PE · Fund Flows

SIGNAL English Edition is live — Korea's deal desk reporting in English. M&A, IPOs, private equity and fund flows, covered daily for global institutional investors. Browse free; subscriber-only scoops at the 50% intro rate.