The KOSPI hit a record high this year, but the share of domestic stock investors who have actually made money is only marginally larger than those sitting on losses. In a survey, 42% of investors said they were in profit, while 40% reported losses — a gap of just 2 percentage points. Still, the outlook for further gains outweighed expectations of a decline.
According to a Gallup Korea survey of 1,004 adults aged 18 and over conducted from the 18th to the 20th and released on the 21st, 37% said the KOSPI would be "higher than now" over the next year. Those expecting it to "fall" came to 29%, leaving the bullish view 8 percentage points ahead of the bearish one. Another 18% expected no change, and 16% withheld an opinion.
The KOSPI passed the 5,000 mark in January — a level President Lee Jae-myung had pledged during his presidential campaign — and then surged to an intraday high of 9,385.59 in June, a record. After a correction, it has recently been trading near the 7,000 mark.
Expectations for the market have eased somewhat from the start of the year. When Gallup Korea surveyed 1,000 adults nationwide from January 20 to 22, 45% expected the index to rise over the following year, while 25% predicted a decline. On January 22, the KOSPI touched an intraday high of 5,019.54 for the first time and closed at 4,952.53.
Over the seven months, the share expecting a rise fell 8 percentage points, from 45% to 37%, while the share expecting a decline rose 4 percentage points, from 25% to 29%. Analysts read the shift as a more cautious stance on further gains, given that the market has already climbed sharply this year and recent volatility has widened.
People who actually invest in stocks viewed the market more favorably than respondents overall. Among the 432 people who had traded or held domestic stocks or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this year, half — 50% — expected the KOSPI to rise. By contrast, among the 572 non-investors, 27% expected a rise and 30% a decline, with the bearish view prevailing.
So how many investors actually made money in this year's surge? Asked about their returns this year, 42% of the 432 domestic stock investors said they had made a profit or were currently in the green. Nearly as many — 40% — said they had taken losses or were currently underwater. Another 17% said they were roughly breaking even, and 1% withheld an opinion.
Views on the economy diverged sharply by investment performance. Of the 183 investors in profit, 47% expected the economy to "improve," while only 21% expected it to "worsen." Conversely, among the 171 in the red, 47% expected the economy to worsen, while 31% expected it to improve.
A difference also emerged in assessments of the president's job performance. Some 59% of investors in profit rated President Lee Jae-myung's performance positively, while 63% of those in the red rated it negatively. Gallup Korea has noted in earlier surveys a tendency for perceptions of the economy and political assessments to be closely linked when it comes to views on the KOSPI and the economic outlook.
The survey was conducted through interviews by phone operators using randomly generated virtual mobile numbers. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a contact rate of 45.6% and a response rate of 10.0%.
