▲AI PRISM* Customized Economic Briefing
*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an "artificial intelligence (AI)-based customized news recommendation and summary service" developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items by reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ GPIF Injection Speculation: As Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama again stated that "if the investment environment changes significantly, adjustments to public pension asset allocation could be considered," strong buying appeared in the 20-year government bond auction, where the tail (the gap between the lowest and average winning prices) recorded zero for the first time since May 2010. In the market, some interpret this as authorities seeking a de facto "stealth intervention," mobilizing pension funds to simultaneously curb interest rate rises and defend the yen amid falling bond prices driven by the U.S.-Japan rate gap and an aggressive fiscal stance.
■ Leverage Sell-off: Goldman Sachs analyzed that leveraged ETFs' mechanical selling disrupted the broader market, noting that 62% of institutional net selling on the day of the KOSPI's sharp fall (8.95%) originated from ETF-related liquidation volume. Trading volume of leveraged and inverse ETFs in the U.S. reached $1.1 trillion in June, setting a monthly record, while global investment banks (IBs) have concluded there is no damage to semiconductor fundamentals.
■ Hormuz Tensions: As U.S. President Donald Trump declared a 20% toll on cargo aboard vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per very large crude carrier (VLCC) reached approximately $32 million (about 48 billion won), 16 times Iran's unofficial charge. The United States carried out night airstrikes on Iran for three consecutive days, and armed clashes are intensifying, with two oil tankers near the UAE (United Arab Emirates) attacked by Iran, leaving one crew member dead.
[Global Investor News of Interest]
1. Markets Swing on Speculation the World's Largest Pension Fund Will Inject Into Japanese Bonds
- Key Summary: As Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama again repeated on this day that "if the investment environment changes significantly, a plan to adjust public pension asset allocation could be considered," the 20-year government bond auction tail recorded zero for the first time since May 2010, producing a strong showing. The GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund), which manages 293.6 trillion yen (about 2,701 trillion won), currently invests 25% in domestic bonds but can expand this to 31% under its rules, and raising the allocation by just 1 percentage point would generate about 3 trillion yen in bond buying demand. As a result, Japan's 10-year government bond yield plunged by about 7.5 basis points (1bp=0.01%) intraday, sinking to the 2.68% range. Meanwhile, a governmental "discord" was also detected as Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Kenichiro Ueno, who oversees the public pension, drew a line under the possibility of a short-term change, saying, "The current investment environment has not deviated significantly from the situation assumed by the basic portfolio."
2. Leverage's Mechanical Selling Deepened the Plunge... Chips Aren't Over Yet
- Key Summary: Goldman Sachs pointed to leveraged ETFs' mechanical selling as the cause of the previous day's KOSPI plunge (8.95%), when a circuit breaker was triggered, analyzing that 62% of institutional net selling originated from ETF-related liquidation volume. Trading volume of leveraged and inverse ETFs in the U.S. reached $1.1 trillion in June, setting a monthly record, and total exposure relative to assets under management (AUM) exceeded $430 billion, making the actual market impact even greater. JP Morgan reported that 50 major Asian investors view the recent price correction as a buying opportunity, as memory long-term agreements (LTAs) serve as an earnings defense wall that fundamentally blocks price plunges. Morgan Stanley raised its Big Tech capital spending forecast, projecting that spending in 2027 and 2028 would increase by 9% and 10%, respectively, versus previous expectations.
3. SpaceX Pushes Up Wall Street Earnings... Largest in Four Years
- Key Summary: With the SpaceX IPO (initial public offering) as a catalyst, the second-quarter fee income of the five largest U.S. investment banks — JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America (BofA), and Citigroup — is projected to reach $11.1 billion (about 16.65 trillion won), up 27% from a year earlier and the highest since 2021. SpaceX's listing underwriting fee, at $500 million (about 750 billion won) on a disclosure basis, is the largest in the history of public offerings, with lead managers Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley each receiving $100 million (about 150 billion won). In addition, M&A (mergers and acquisitions) fees are projected to surge 30% from a year earlier to exceed $4 billion (about 6 trillion won), surpassing this level for three consecutive quarters for the first time since 2021. In the first half of this year, the scale of global M&A, IPO, and private fundraising reached $3.2 trillion, up 45% from a year earlier and marking the highest half-year figure in the past decade.
[Global Investor Reference News]
4. June Foreign Stock Fund Net Outflow Hits Record High Again
- Key Summary: According to the "Trends in International Finance and Foreign Exchange Markets Since June 2026" released by the Bank of Korea, foreign stock funds in domestic equities recorded a net outflow of $32.37 billion (about 48.31 trillion won) last month, exceeding the previous record of May (-$31.83 billion). The BOK analyzed the causes as weakened investment sentiment stemming from caution over global AI investment and adjustments to domestic stock holding ratios following stock price rises. Stock funds have shown a net outflow trend for six consecutive months, with the cumulative net outflow in the first half of this year reaching $110.21 billion (about 164.55 trillion won). Meanwhile, bond funds recorded a net inflow of $1.65 billion (about 2.46 trillion won), continuing an inflow trend for three consecutive months since April, boosted by the expansion of the WGBI (World Government Bond Index) inclusion weighting.
5. Facing 48 Billion Won per Tanker... Iran Mocks "We're Fairer"
- Key Summary: As U.S. President Donald Trump declared he would impose a 20% toll on cargo aboard vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per very large crude carrier (VLCC) reached approximately $32 million (about 48 billion won), 16 times the up to $2 million (about 2.97 billion won) per voyage that Iran has unofficially imposed. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), following President Trump's orders, carried out night airstrikes for three consecutive days on military targets across Iran, including Bushehr and Chabahar, and Iran continued its counterattack by striking U.S. bases in Jordan and Bahrain with ballistic missiles. The UAE Ministry of Defense announced that two oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz were attacked by Iran, leaving one crew member dead and eight injured. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, responding to the U.S. toll declaration, said, "We will handle tolls fairly," using it as grounds to reinforce his own toll claims.
6. Bloomberg: "Samsung Electronics (005930) Reconsidering U.S. ADR Listing"
- Key Summary: Bloomberg, citing multiple sources, reported that Samsung Electronics held preliminary discussions with investment banks regarding a U.S. stock market listing through the issuance of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). As background for the review, the report explained that a precedent emerged in which SK hynix (000660) raised $26.5 billion (about 39 trillion won) through a U.S. listing, achieving the largest scale ever among foreign companies listed in the United States. However, Bloomberg said, "The discussions are still at a very early stage, and there is a possibility they may not lead to an actual listing," and Samsung Electronics plans to make a final decision while watching the increasingly volatile movement of memory semiconductor stock prices. In the industry, some assess that the practical benefits are insufficient, given that Samsung Electronics' market capitalization has surpassed $1 trillion, it has ample cash assets, and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) registration procedures are demanding.
