According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, the 53rd tropical depression was moving through waters east of Guam as of 9 a.m. on Sept. 16. Its central pressure was 1,000 hectopascals, with maximum winds of 15.2 meters per second. The agency expects the depression to develop into Typhoon Dujuan within 24 hours.
By 3 p.m. on Thursday, Sept. 17, the storm is expected to strengthen to maximum winds of 29 meters per second and central pressure of 980 hectopascals as it moves north-northwest. By 3 p.m. on Friday, Sept. 18, it is forecast to intensify to central pressure of 965 hectopascals and maximum winds of 37 meters per second while tracking west-northwest in waters far south of Japan.
By 3 p.m. on Saturday, Sept. 19, the storm is projected to reach waters about 1,030 kilometers southeast of Kagoshima, Japan, with maximum winds of 39 meters per second and central pressure of 960 hectopascals. By 3 p.m. on Sunday, Sept. 20, it is expected to strengthen to maximum winds of 40 meters per second and central pressure of 955 hectopascals as it approaches waters about 740 kilometers southeast of Kagoshima.
Dujuan is expected to track west-northwest through waters south of Japan until Sept. 19, then turn northwest on Sept. 20 as it approaches waters far southeast of Kyushu. However, uncertainty over the track grows over time, with the 70% probability radius for the storm's projected position on Sept. 20 widening to 440 kilometers.
Dujuan is expected to peak on Sept. 21, four days before Chuseok on Sept. 25. According to KMA data, five typhoons have significantly affected the Korean Peninsula around the Chuseok holiday: Sarah, which struck the peninsula on Chuseok itself in 1959, along with Abby in 1986, Oliwa in 1997, Saomai in 2000 and Maemi in 2003.
Separately from the typhoon's northward advance, wide daily temperature swings are expected to continue for some time. The KMA forecast that the gap between daytime and nighttime temperatures will be large, at around 10 to 15 degrees Celsius, across most of the country through Sept. 17. Rain is forecast in succession, centered on Jeju and the east coast. On Sept. 17, about 5 millimeters of rain will fall on Jeju from the afternoon into the night. On Friday, Sept. 18, the rain will spread more widely. Rain will continue on Jeju, with showers expected from morning into evening along the southern coasts of Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongsang Province as well as the east coast of southern Gyeongsangbuk-do, and from the afternoon along Gangwon's east coast and mountainous areas.
