Global smartphone shipments are expected to fall this year, but Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) is projected to buck the trend with 0.8% growth, overtaking Apple to return to the top spot, according to a new forecast.
Research firm Counterpoint Research said on the 21st that a deepening shortage of memory chips has led memory suppliers to prioritize allocations to artificial intelligence data centers, such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and server DRAM, hurting makers of consumer electronics including mobile phones.
As a result, component costs for manufacturers are rising and will feed into higher consumer prices, with the steepest increases likely on entry-level and mid-range handsets, the firm said. Chinese makers will be hit particularly hard, according to Counterpoint.
Even so, Samsung is expected to weather the situation well, supported by a highly integrated supply chain and a strong distribution network. Apple should also withstand the pressure from rising component prices, though less comfortably than Samsung, Counterpoint said.
Aside from Samsung, China's Huawei was cited as another company poised for growth, having built its own hardware supply chain in response to U.S. sanctions.
The overall smartphone market is forecast to keep declining through 2027 before recovering in 2028.
"Samsung's return to the top is thanks to its in-house component production, broad product portfolio and solid carrier and distribution channels," Counterpoint senior analyst Yang Wang told Bloomberg. "Major Chinese smartphone makers are expected to face pressure from declining shipments. We expect industry consolidation to accelerate during the downturn."
Wang added that while Apple's new AI features and the foldable phone set for release this year could support product differentiation and premiumization, they are not expected to significantly boost shipments.
In the first quarter of this year, Apple led global smartphone shipment share at 21%, with Samsung slipping to second place at 20%, according to Counterpoint. But in the second quarter, Samsung raised its share by 3 percentage points to overtake a stagnant Apple, which held at 21%. The gains were attributed to Samsung keeping price increases relatively modest in India and the Middle East, aggressive promotions and strong sales of its Galaxy S26 series.
