Ahead of the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North and Central America, various data analyses have identified France as the strongest title contender. Neither defending champion Argentina nor Spain, which has kept a clean-sheet run, surpassed France.
Opta, a football statistics specialist, released its supercomputer simulation results on the 9th, giving France the highest title-winning probability at 27.32%. Spain followed at 21.33%, Argentina at 17.28%, and England at 16.48%.
Fifth was Norway (6.57%), led by Erling Haaland, followed by Switzerland (3.78%), Morocco (3.66%), and Belgium (3.58%). The assessment noted a clear gap in title prospects between the top four teams and the rest.
France has shown the most consistent performance in this tournament. After passing the group stage with three straight wins, it thrashed Sweden 3-0 in the round of 32 and beat Paraguay 1-0 in the round of 16 for a five-game winning streak. France boasts an offensive-defensive balance, scoring 14 goals and conceding just two in five matches.
Kylian Mbappé is at the center of the attack. Mbappé has scored seven goals in this tournament, tied for second in scoring. Although Lionel Messi leads the scoring race with eight goals, France receives the highest evaluation in overall team strength and performance.
Opta also projected France's probability of beating Morocco in the quarterfinals to reach the semifinals at 73.88%. The two teams met in the semifinals of the 2022 Qatar World Cup, where France won 2-0.
Another football statistics outlet, Squawka, also named France the most likely title contender. Squawka ranked title prospects in the order of France, Spain, Argentina, and England, stating, "It is difficult to find any disagreement that France is the strongest title contender."
France is challenging for its first title in eight years since the 2018 Russia World Cup, along with its third overall World Cup title. In the previous 2022 Qatar World Cup, it lost to Argentina on penalties in the final, leaving the disappointment of a failed back-to-back title defense.
The North and Central America World Cup quarterfinals open on the 10th with the France-Morocco clash. On the 11th, Spain and Belgium face off, and on the 12th, Norway and England, as well as Argentina and Switzerland, meet for semifinal berths. The final will be held on the 20th at the Stadium in New York-New Jersey, United States.
