Chip Supercycle Not Over, Seen Lasting Two to Three More Years

*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an 'AI-based customized news recommendation and summary service' developed with the support of the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items for each reader type.

1. "Semiconductor Supercycle Until Big Tech Gives Up on Investment"… Two to Three More Years Ahead

- Key Summary: Kim Sun-woo, an analyst at Meritz Securities, forecast that the current semiconductor cycle, unlike past cycles, is based on B2B (business-to-business) AI infrastructure investment and will continue for at least two to three more years. He had projected Samsung Electronics' second-quarter operating profit at 90.1 trillion won, a gap of less than 1 trillion won from the actual result, earning him a reputation as the analyst who identifies semiconductor inflection points earliest in the industry. Kim explained that as long as Big Tech companies do not stop investing to secure a lead in artificial general intelligence (AGI), the end of the cycle—marked by a sharp drop in new orders—has not yet arrived. He also projected that if SK hynix (000660.KS) lists American depositary receipts (ADRs) in the United States, the resolution of its undervaluation could also benefit Samsung Electronics through a valuation re-rating.

2. Samsung Begins Mass Production of 'AI NAND' for Vera Rubin After HBM4… Wings for 100 Trillion Won Profit

- Key Summary: Samsung Electronics announced on the 8th that it has begun mass production of the 'PM1763,' a new eSSD product to be installed in Nvidia's next-generation AI computing platform Vera Rubin. The product features PCIe (PCI Express) 6.0, doubling data transfer bandwidth from the previous generation, with capacity of up to 16TB and sequential read speeds of 28,400MB per second, twice as fast as its predecessor. Samsung Electronics has established a supply system spanning both DRAM and NAND, and high-value products continue to push up average selling prices (ASP). Industry observers say this strategy could allow Samsung Electronics' quarterly operating profit in the 100 trillion won range to be sustained over the long term.

3. 63% of KOSPI Stocks at New Lows… Even Large Caps Melted Down

- Key Summary: While the KOSPI index has risen 72.47% this year, 599 stocks—63.4% of those on the main board—have instead hit 52-week lows. EcoPro Materials (450080.KS), TCC Steel (002710.KS), and SNT Energy (100840.KS) fell more than 30% from last month, and new lows also emerged among top market-cap stocks including Samsung Biologics (207940.KS), Celltrion (068270.KS), and Naver. Jeong Hee-chan, an analyst at Samsung Securities, explained that since the launch of single-stock leveraged products, futures trading in 'Samjeonnics' (a market term bundling Samsung Electronics and SK hynix) has surged, leading to concentration in a few stocks and heightened volatility. On the day, the KOSPI index closed at 7,246.79, plunging 5.35% from the previous trading day, and the KOSDAQ index finished down 5.56% at 785, triggering the sidecar—a temporary halt on program sell orders—for a second consecutive trading day.

4. "Overwhelming Earnings" vs. "Heightened Volatility"… Views on Samsung Electronics Diverge

- Key Summary: Despite Samsung Electronics posting an earnings surprise with second-quarter operating profit of 89.4 trillion won, its shares closed down 6.25% from the previous trading day at 277,500 won. KB Securities raised its target price from 530,000 won to 600,000 won, citing expanding AI memory demand and supply constraints, and IBK Investment & Securities also raised its target from 350,000 won to 460,000 won. In contrast, Kiwoom Securities lowered its target price from 430,000 won to 390,000 won, reflecting concerns that rising memory prices could dampen demand for finished devices. Eugene Investment & Securities maintained its target price of 560,000 won and its 'strong buy' rating, placing weight on profit sustainability through long-term supply agreements (LTAs).

5. Drastic Measures Against Surging Household Loans… Concerns Over "Direct Hit to End-Users and Those in Their 20s-30s"

- Key Summary: KB Kookmin Bank moved to lower its nationwide mortgage limits as rapid growth in home-backed lending since June made it difficult to meet its annual management target. The bank had earlier strengthened step-by-step management measures, including suspending mortgage insurance (MCI/MCG) enrollment and restricting loans conditioned on repaying loans at other banks. Shinhan Bank and Hana Bank are considering similar limit reductions, while insurers including Tongyang Life (082640.KS), Samsung Life Insurance (032830.KS), Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810.KS), and Hanwha Life Insurance (088350.KS) are also successively suspending mortgage and credit loan offerings. Financial authorities are pushing to raise the mortgage risk coefficient for insurers from 3.5% to 4.0% starting at the end of September, raising concerns that lending barriers for end-users and younger borrowers could rise further.

6. Kookmin Bank Cuts Nationwide Mortgage Limit to 300 Million Won

- Key Summary: KB Kookmin Bank announced it will reduce its home purchase mortgage limit in the Seoul metropolitan area and regulated zones from 600 million won to 300 million won starting on the 10th. Loans for purchasing homes priced above 2.5 billion won will remain capped at a maximum of 200 million won as before, and a new 300 million won limit will also apply to areas outside regulated zones. The move follows a renewed acceleration in loan growth, with mortgage lending across the financial sector rising 4 trillion won in May and total household loans increasing 9.3 trillion won. However, relocation expense loans, interim and balance payment loans, fund-backed loans, and Bogeumjari loans are excluded from the new limits.