▲ AI PRISM* Customized Economic Briefing
*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an 'artificial intelligence (AI)-based customized news recommendation and summary service' developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items for each reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ Structural Shift in AI Demand: Kim Sun-woo, an analyst at Meritz Securities, diagnosed that the center of semiconductor demand has shifted from business-to-consumer (B2C) to business-to-business (B2B) transactions, and that the structure has changed to one where artificial intelligence (AI) model performance improves with the amount of resources invested. He forecast that in the race to seize artificial general intelligence (AGI), the cycle will only turn down when big tech companies voluntarily stop investing, and that such a point would come in two to three years at the earliest.
■ US Investment Controversy: US President Donald Trump claimed that foreign investment in the United States has grown to $21 trillion (about 31,800 trillion won) thanks to his tariff policies, but the New York Times (NYT) reported on the 7th that net investment—which accounts for investment withdrawals and financial flows—actually declined slightly. Adnan Mazarei, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), told the NYT that the increase in investment is a global phenomenon and that it is difficult to conclude it is the result of tariff policy.
■ Oil Price Surge Geopolitics: US President Donald Trump said at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit that the ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran appears to be over, sending West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures surging 6.46%. After Iran attacked three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command struck some 80 targets inside Iran, and Iran retaliated by striking 85 US facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and elsewhere, resuming hostilities.
[News of Interest to Global Investors]
1. Semiconductor Supercycle Until Big Tech Gives Up on Investment… It Will Run 2-3 More Years
- Key Summary: As Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) posted an earnings surprise with second-quarter operating profit of 89.4 trillion won, Kim Sun-woo, an analyst at Meritz Securities, diagnosed that this semiconductor cycle has an entirely different structure from those of the past. He explained that the center of memory demand is shifting from business-to-consumer (B2C) to business-to-business (B2B) transactions, making it different from past cycles in which demand broke down as personal consumption declined. He added that SK hynix's (000660.KS) US American depositary receipt (ADR) listing will serve as a starting point for receiving fair valuation in global markets, and that through this, Samsung Electronics could also benefit from a valuation re-rating. He also assessed that an era is arriving in which AI data centers themselves become national security assets, and that despite the pursuit of Chinese memory makers, Korea's technology gap in advanced memory processes is being maintained.
2. Trump Says 'Tariffs Drew Investment'… NYT Says 'Net Investment in US Declined'
- Key Summary: US President Donald Trump claimed that foreign investment in the United States reached $21 trillion (about 31,800 trillion won) due to last year's tariff policies, but the New York Times (NYT) directly rebutted this on the 7th. New foreign direct investment (FDI) tallied by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) rose from $155 billion (about 234 trillion won) in 2024 to $232 billion (about 350 trillion won) in 2025, but net investment—which reflects investment withdrawals and financial flows such as intercompany loans—declined slightly and falls short of the average of the past 10 years. Meanwhile, Trump has secured investment pledges of about $5 trillion (about 7,541 trillion won) over up to 10 years from major countries including the European Union (EU), Korea, Japan and Taiwan, but the NYT pointed out that it remains to be seen over time whether these plans will translate into actual results.
3. Trump Drops Bombshell at NATO, Saying 'MOU Seems Over'… International Oil Prices Rise 6%
- Key Summary: US President Donald Trump said at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit held in Ankara, Turkey, that the ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran appears to be over, sending West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures soaring 6.46% from the previous day to $74.99. After Iran attacked three oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command struck some 80 targets inside Iran, citing violation of the MOU, and Iran retaliated by striking 85 US facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and elsewhere, resuming hostilities that had been suspended. Trump went further with hardline remarks toward NATO allies, including instructing US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to halt all trade with Spain. Brent crude also rose 6.31% to $78.84, showing Middle East geopolitical risk shaking the entire international energy market.
[News for Global Investors' Reference]
4. Korea Unlocks Omnibus Accounts for Foreigners… 'A Must-Have Market for Global Investment'
- Key Summary: With the introduction of foreign omnibus accounts, which dramatically improved foreign investors' access to the Korean stock market, Interactive Brokers (IBKR), one of the world's largest online brokers, launched a Korean stock trading service in May this year in partnership with Samsung Securities (016360.KS). David Friedland, head of Asia-Pacific at Interactive Brokers, explained that while Samsung Electronics and SK hynix drive demand, investment demand is broadly distributed across hundreds of stocks every day. He assessed that while overseas investors knew little about Korean companies just 10 years ago, Korea has now become one of the world's six largest stock markets and a market that must be considered in global portfolios. In addition, overseas investors' interest in Korean culture and industries overall—including K-pop, food, beauty and automobiles—has risen sharply, raising expectations for inflows of global capital.
5. Is the 'Domestic ETF' Fever Cooling?… Asset Managers Turn Their Eyes to the US
- Key Summary: In Korea's exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, asset managers' new product strategies are rapidly shifting their center of gravity from the domestic market to the US market. According to the Korea Exchange (KRX), of the 10 ETFs listed or set to be listed in July, five—half—are US market investment products, with themes increasingly segmented into AI infrastructure, space, robotics, big tech and bond-mixed products. NH-Amundi Asset Management is preparing to launch the 'HANARO US S&P500 Active' and 'HANARO US AI Optical Communications TOP10,' while Mirae Asset Global Investments has introduced the 'TIGER US Tech NYSE100 Active' and Kiwoom Asset Management has already unveiled the 'KIWOOM US Space Tech TOP2 Bond-Mixed 50.' This contrasts with the first half of the year, when 71 newly listed ETFs were concentrated in domestic investment products, and the industry interprets it as the result of heightened volatility in the domestic stock market accelerating asset managers' diversification into overseas products.
- Key Summary: As major countries phase in mandatory sustainability (ESG) disclosure starting in 2025-2027, federal-level climate disclosure rules in the United States have effectively been halted since the inauguration of the Donald Trump administration. In contrast, the European Union (EU) adopted the Voluntary Standard for SMEs (VSME) on the 3rd of this month and decided to reduce corporate reporting costs by about €4.7 billion (about 8.2 trillion won) over 2027-2031 through the revised European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS). Korea plans to mandate ESG disclosure from 2028 for KOSPI-listed companies with consolidated total assets of 10 trillion won or more, and to sequentially expand coverage to companies with 5 trillion won and then 2 trillion won in assets. In business circles, concerns are being raised that Korea's pace of expansion is faster than that of major countries, even as the EU is revising its system in the direction of easing corporate burdens.
▶Go to article: Kookmin Bank, Jeon
