Cooling U.S. Prices Offer No Relief as Tariffs, Oil Keep Inflation Alive

* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an AI-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six tailored news items by reader type.

1. The Illusion of "Cooling Inflation"

- Key summary: U.S. price indicators have slowed on paper, but it is too early to read this as inflation easing. The year-on-year rise in the CPI, which peaked at 4.2% in May, fell to 3.5% in June and 3.4% in July, while the rise in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index dropped to 3.7% in June from 4.1% in May. Still, the pace remains far from the Fed's 2% target, and because the main driver of price gains is tariffs and supply shocks from the war in the Middle East, the issue is hard to resolve through monetary and fiscal policy alone. After a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran was nullified, Brent crude returned to the $90-a-barrel range. Meanwhile, with federal government debt surpassing $40 trillion and Big Tech competing on AI investment, Treasury yields have held firm despite intervention by the U.S. Treasury.

2. Nvidia AI Server Prices to Rise 17%

- Key summary: Nvidia will raise supply prices for its Grace Blackwell 300 and Vera Rubin 200 rack products by 17% early next year. The plan was reportedly conveyed to major customers including Microsoft, Google and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The Grace Blackwell 300 previously cost about $3.7 million to $4 million per rack, while the Vera Rubin 200 was priced around $7.8 million and is expected to rise above $8 million. As a result, the cost of building a 1-gigawatt-class data center could increase by at least $5 billion (about 6.94 trillion won). Behind the increase is a supply shortage among the three major high-bandwidth memory (HBM) makers — Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron Technology. Meanwhile, as demand for back-end processing (packaging and testing) surges, capacity expansion investment by Taiwan's five largest firms has topped NT$460 billion (about 20 trillion won).

3. Will Rates Rise Again This Month? Caution Grows Amid Surging Treasury Yields

- Key summary: Expectations are widespread that the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board will raise rates again on the 27th, following last month's increase. In a survey by The Seoul Economic Daily of 20 economics and business professors and bond-market experts, 13 (65%) expected a 0.25 percentage point hike, while 7 (35%) forecast a hold. Inflationary pressure was the most-cited reason for a hike (8 respondents, 40%), with analysts noting that growth exceeding 3% this year and strong semiconductor exports have raised the appropriate rate level itself. Still, some urge caution, arguing that the tightening cycle cannot be rushed because government bond yields are under upward pressure amid concern over the U.S. fiscal deficit. On the U.S. benchmark rate, 80% of respondents (16) predicted a hold at the current level (3.5–3.75%).

4. Gold Rebounds on Weaker Dollar; Gold Mining ETFs Up 40% in a Month

- Key summary: International gold prices recovered to $4,600 an ounce for the first time in three months, sending returns on gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) climbing again. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures closed at $4,680.60 an ounce on the 21st (local time), up 17.25% in a month from this year's low of $3,992.10 last month. Over the same period, the WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund (GDMN) rose 47.60% and the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) gained 42.85%, outpacing the rise in physical gold. Concern over U.S. fiscal soundness and a weaker dollar were behind the move, with the dollar index falling to 98.80, its lowest level since May 14.

5. [Yeomyeong] Harvard's Way of Investing

- Key summary: It has been revealed that Harvard University invested $2.2 billion (more than 3 trillion won) in a single stock, SpaceX, making it the fifth-largest shareholder. That is more than half of the funds Harvard has allocated to listed stocks. The endowment is run by Harvard Management Company (HMC), whose chief executive and chief investment officer are both investment professionals recruited from outside. Harvard's endowment grew to $56.9 billion (about 76 trillion won) last year on an 11% return, with listed stocks accounting for 14% and 70% allocated to unlisted investments through hedge funds, private equity and venture capital. In Korea, by contrast, a rule that imposes penalty and gift taxes if a university does not spend money it earns within three years has been an obstacle. An amendment applying a three-year tax deferral to shares disposed of on or after Jan. 1, 2026, has passed, but a wide gap remains with the United States, where such gains are tax-free.

6. Other Corporations Lift the Index Even as Foreigners, Institutions and Individuals Sell: SK hynix Becomes the "Fourth Buyer"

- Key summary: SK hynix's 40 trillion won share buyback is shaking up supply and demand in the domestic stock market. On the 20th and 21st, SK hynix bought 650,000 of its own shares each day on the open market for 1.0908 trillion won and 1.1335 trillion won, purchasing 2.2243 trillion won worth over the two days. As a result, the share of "other corporations" in net KOSPI buying jumped 11-fold, from 0.34% to 3.77%. On the 21st, the KOSPI closed up 0.88% even though individuals net sold 1.1652 trillion won and foreigners 171.1 billion won — a combined 1.0882 trillion won by the three main groups — thanks to net buying of 1.0931 trillion won by other corporations. Analysts say that with Samsung Electronics' 15 trillion won buyback for performance bonuses added in, the two major chipmakers will further strengthen the KOSPI's downside resistance.