A series of major events that could resolve key issues between South Korea and the United States will unfold around this weekend. A standing committee meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) and talks between the two countries' foreign ministers are expected, followed by the announcement of an investment project in the U.S. and President Lee Jae-myung's subsequent trip to the United States. Attention is focused on whether the two sides can find a breakthrough on several tangled issues that have made little progress, including follow-up measures from their summit, the Coupang dispute and a possible troop deployment to the Strait of Hormuz. Uncertainties remain, including the postponement of a parliamentary briefing on the U.S. investment project.
Trump Renews Pressure With Talk of 'Reparations After the War'
According to the government on the 17th, the Ministry of National Defense is expected to report to the NSC standing committee meeting held that day on findings from an investigation team it had dispatched to the United Arab Emirates. Some observers had expected the NSC to decide on a Hormuz deployment at the meeting, but the matter will not be placed on the formal agenda, sources said. Opposition to a deployment is strong, and Foreign Minister Cho Hyun will be away for the talks with his U.S. counterpart, making a conclusion difficult.
Instead, the committee is expected to review a range of options for contributing to the Hormuz effort based on the investigation team's report. One option under discussion is dispatching a minimal force centered on non-combat or defensive assets such as maritime patrol aircraft, explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) teams and unmanned equipment.
Cho departed for Washington the same day and will meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the 18th. The ministerial talks had been expected to take place around the U.N. General Assembly, which opens in New York on the 22nd.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it plans to discuss a broad range of topics including the bilateral relationship, the Korean Peninsula, and regional and global issues, without specifying the agenda. But with an agreement on the U.S. investment nearing completion and President Donald Trump stepping up pressure over a Hormuz deployment, the talks are likely to move close to conclusions on the main issues between the two countries.
In a Truth Social post on the 14th, Trump said countries that had not helped the U.S. would have to pay reparations once the war was over. Given that Trump twice expressed dissatisfaction last month with South Korea's contribution on Hormuz, the country appears to be among those he considers liable.
U.S. Frustration Builds as $350 Billion Investment Slips
Diplomatic sources interpret the pressure as stemming ultimately from delays in the U.S. investment. One diplomatic source said that from the perspective of the relevant U.S. government agencies, there had been no new progress to report to Trump since the summit in October last year.
With the $350 billion investment, the core of the package, delayed for nearly a year, individual matters such as the Coupang dispute and support on Hormuz have piled on to produce what amounts to negative synergy, according to this reading. A revision to the Act on Promotion of Information and Communications Network Utilization and Information Protection and religious issues also remain potential flashpoints. As a result, cooperation on nuclear energy and nuclear-powered submarines, one of the follow-up items from the summit, has also stalled.
The first project under the U.S. investment plan, which was to help untangle the impasse, was set to be announced after long delays, but concerns have not eased amid a last-minute postponement of a parliamentary briefing. The government has pushed back the briefing, originally scheduled for the 17th, to around the 22nd, sources said. Analysts attribute the delay to a failure to narrow differences in final negotiations. The timing of a joint statement by the two governments on the investment, once expected as early as the 18th, is also unclear.
If the first project is delayed, talks on nuclear energy and submarines could slip again. The issues, repeatedly pushed back, may ultimately be settled in talks between the two leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. Lee is expected to attend the assembly, and an informal meeting with Trump is seen as possible.
