Server DRAM Prices Jump 5.5-Fold in a Year as AI Demand Defies Slowdown Talk

* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six news items tailored to each reader type.

1. Server DRAM Prices Up 5.5-Fold Despite AI Slowdown Talk, Opening Era of 100 Trillion Won Quarterly Profit

Key summary: As of the 15th of this month, the fixed contract price for 64GB DDR5 server DRAM stood at $1,500, 5.5 times the $272 recorded a year earlier, and some spot market transactions were reported at $3,100. OpenAI, Anthropic and Google are not slowing their race to develop next-generation frontier models, deepening the memory supply shortage, and Morgan Stanley estimates major cloud providers will invest more than $1.4 trillion in AI data center infrastructure next year. Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit is forecast at 107.4 trillion won, which would mark the first time quarterly profit tops 100 trillion won since the company's founding. UBS projects Samsung Electronics' HBM market share will rise to 41% in 2027, overtaking SK hynix at 39%, making a recovery of leadership in HBM4 a variable that will determine next year's earnings.

2. Trading Value Hits Year's Low as Sentiment Cools, Foreigners Dump 12 Trillion Won

Key summary: Foreign investors sold a net 11.9462 trillion won over six sessions from the 9th through the 16th, with 93.52% of that selling concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. With the won-dollar rate plunging from the 1,550 range to the low 1,300 range, analysts say foreign investors used the move as an exit to lock in both stock and currency gains on first-half paper profits. Average daily trading value on the KOSPI came to 20.968 trillion won this month, the lowest this year, and daily trading value on the 16th was 15.855 trillion won, the lowest single-day figure of the year. As foreign investors unload chip shares, they are rotating into manufacturers and financial stocks such as SK Innovation (096770.KS), GS and Korean Air (003490.KS), making sector rotation worth watching.

3. Earnings Plus Added Shareholder Returns: The Moment for Samsung and SK hynix Returns

Key summary: Samsung Electronics is carrying out a share buyback of about 15 trillion won, and its shareholder return resources for this year are estimated at 90 trillion to 110 trillion won, while SK hynix has signaled additional shareholder return measures including a special third-quarter dividend on top of a 40 trillion won buyback plan. Citi forecasts that memory supply shortages could persist through 2031 as continuous AI training drives simultaneous demand growth for HBM, server DDR5 and enterprise SSDs. Some caution, however, that the falling won-dollar rate is weighing on export earnings, making it difficult for strong third-quarter results alone to turn share prices higher immediately. Brokerages judge that chip stocks need October earnings from U.S. Big Tech to reaffirm sustained AI investment before they can gain real upward momentum.

4. Reuters: SK hynix and Intel Weighing Memory Production in the U.S.

Key summary: Reuters, citing multiple sources, reported that SK hynix is considering as a leading option leasing part of a semiconductor production facility Intel has been building in Ohio to manufacture memory chips. A plan for SK hynix, Intel and major cloud companies to establish a joint venture is also said to be under discussion, and analysts point to pressure from the Trump administration over semiconductor tariffs as the backdrop to the talks. SK hynix is currently building an HBM advanced packaging plant in Indiana with about $4 billion in investment, with mass production targeted for the second half of 2029. SK hynix, however, said nothing has been finalized, and the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said the matter could be subject to review under the Industrial Technology Protection Act if it involves national core technologies, indicating the need to watch how the situation develops.

5. Oil and Rates Surge, Drawing 1.3 Trillion Won Into Cash-Like ETFs

Key summary: Over the past week, from the 9th to the 16th of September, a combined 1.3506 trillion won flowed into just four cash-like and short-term rate ETFs, including 691.8 billion won into KODEX Money Market Active, shifting the center of gravity in ETF flows from bargain hunting to holding cash. Attacks on Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline and a halt to crude loading at the Red Sea port of Yanbu have pushed both WTI and Brent above $105 a barrel, and as surging oil prices heightened inflation concerns, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 5.041% intraday, the highest in about 19 years since 2007. Demand for hedges against further stock declines also grew, with 224.9 billion won flowing into KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X and 184.3 billion won into KODEX Inverse. With some analysts saying oil prices and market rates could stabilize together if geopolitical tensions ease, developments in the Middle East have emerged as a variable that will shape the direction of the domestic stock market.

6. Kakao Courts Minority Shareholders, Says Spin-Off Will Lift Corporate Value

Key summary: Kakao (035720.KS), which is preparing to split into Kakao AI and Kakao X, held an online briefing for minority shareholders on the 16th and stressed that resolving its conglomerate discount and specializing by business line can maximize corporate and shareholder value. Citing earlier domestic spin-off cases, Kakao said combined market capitalization improved by an average of 32% after the splits, noting that Samyang Holdings (000070.KS) saw its market value rise 84% after announcing a split and Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS) gained 36%. Kakao X presented a plan to buy back and retire a total of 300 billion won in shares over three years after the split, funded by gains from the sale of its Dunamu stake, and to use 30% of after-tax dividends for baseline shareholder returns. The split ratio was set at 0.36 for Kakao AI and 0.64 for Kakao X based on book value of net assets, and will be finalized after the split date, making it critical to secure minority shareholder consent before the general shareholders meeting.

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