The presidential office under former President Yoon Suk-yeol pressed the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy to move up additional drilling for the "Blue Whale" deep-sea gas project in the East Sea, originally scheduled through 2029, to within Yoon's term, an audit has found.
According to the results of a public-interest audit request on the East Sea deep-sea gas project released by the Board of Audit and Inspection on the 16th, the ministry reported to the presidential office in May 2024 that it would drill the first Blue Whale well by the end of that year and drill four more wells by 2029. But in September of the same year, the presidential office demanded the schedule be moved up to within Yoon's term, which ran through May 2027.
When the ministry explained that it needed time for assessment and analysis, the presidential office demanded that then-Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun report directly to the president. When Ahn explained that "a political judgment is needed," Yoon rebuked him, saying, "I am the one who makes political judgments," and ordered the schedule redrawn. Ahn ultimately reported a revised plan to drill four additional wells by 2026, even though he considered the timeline unrealistic.
The audit also found signs that the presidential office pushed ahead with a public announcement despite the ministry's caution. The ministry had recommended restraint in publicity, saying the chance of exploration success was quite uncertain at under 20%. It also proposed describing the findings in terms of "prospect area" rather than "resource volume," warning that disclosing resource estimates unconfirmed by drilling could fuel excessive expectations.
Yoon nonetheless announced at a June 2024 policy briefing that there was a high probability of up to 14 billion barrels of oil and gas being buried in the deep waters of the East Sea. The audit board said the projection was "an optimistic estimate derived by simply adding up figures on the assumption that all seven prospects hold the maximum prospective resource value (P10)," noting that the probability of all seven succeeding in exploration was just 0.0002%.
The Blue Whale drilling itself was also found to have been pursued without sufficient verification. The geological probability of success for Blue Whale was 19.1%, below the 25% to 32% pre-drilling success probability for the "Bangeo" structure, where a gas discovery failed in 2021. Korea National Oil Corp. nonetheless drew up a basic drilling plan before the related study was completed. In the actual drilling, gas saturation came to just 6.3%, far short of the 50% to 70% initially expected, and the gas confirmed turned out to be biodegraded biogenic gas.
The audit board also identified a total of seven illegal or improper actions in the course of the project, including improper handling of the designated competitive bidding and technical evaluation and the pursuit of drilling without sufficient verification, and requested disciplinary measures from or notified the relevant agencies. The board decided, however, not to require separate action from the presidential office or the ministry over Yoon's public announcement and the presidential office's handling of project reports, citing factors such as the absence of applicable regulations.
