President Lee Jae-myung's job approval rating has fallen below 40% for the first time since he took office, according to a Realmeter survey. The drop was sharpest among voters in their 40s and 50s, a core support base, in what analysts read as a backlash against the government's housing policy. Other polls have also shown approval breaking below the 40% line or hitting successive post-inauguration lows, deepening a sense of crisis in the presidential office. Lee attempted to shift the narrative with a mid-sized cabinet reshuffle, but analysts say reversing the hardened public mood will not be easy.
Realmeter, commissioned by the Energy Economy newspaper, surveyed respondents from the 24th to the 28th using an automated response system on mobile phones only. Lee's approval rating came in at 38.9%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous week, the pollster said on the 31st. It was the seventh consecutive weekly decline and the first time the figure had fallen below 40% in the firm's surveys since he took office. (The margin of error is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Further details are available from the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.)
The survey showed a pronounced exodus among voters in their 40s and 50s, Lee's core constituency. Approval among those in their 40s fell 3.1 percentage points to 43.6%, while approval among those in their 50s dropped 7.5 percentage points to 40.8%. Support also continued to slide among moderates and progressives, his ideological base. Realmeter attributed the decline to worsening public sentiment on housing driven by home prices and jeonse and monthly rent costs. Homeowners in their 40s and 50s in the greater Seoul area, in particular, are seen as having turned against Lee amid growing resentment over a heavier tax burden on single homes that the owner does not live in.
That stands in contrast to the Democratic Party, which is sensitive to public opinion and has pushed hard for revisions to the property tax overhaul, limiting the damage to its own standing. Lee's approval rating trailed the Democratic Party's 42.1%, up 1.2 percentage points in the same survey, and the gap continued to widen, confirming a decoupling between the president and his party.
The problem is that while the erosion of public support has reached a level that raises questions about the government's governing momentum, there is no easy opening for a rebound. Realmeter said the slide has continued as controversy over the refusal to appoint a Supreme Court justice nominee, distrust of the police stemming from a disappearance case on Jeju Island, and infighting within the ruling bloc over remarks by writer Rhyu Si-min have piled up.
In the reshuffle announced on the 30th, Lee nominated sitting vice ministers to head the Ministry of Finance and Economy, whose minister also serves as deputy prime minister, and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. Political observers read the choices as a signal that the government intends to stay its policy course, meaning tax pressure extending even to owners of a single home is likely to continue. The ruling party is expected to seek revisions in the National Assembly, including an easing of the basic deduction for the comprehensive real estate holding tax, but analysts say approval is unlikely to recover unless a shift in the government's stance becomes visible.
A recovery among the Democratic Party's core supporters also appears distant. The fallout from the Aug. 17 party convention, which ended in factional conflict that amounted to all-out war, has yet to heal. Lee has sought reconciliation, summoning figures aligned with Chung Chung-rai to stress a "one team" message, but hardline and longtime party members bruised during the convention remain skeptical. Some say big-voiced commentators such as Rhyu and YouTuber Kim Ou-joon are fanning the trend. A Democratic Party official said party members were in fact deeply unsettled by Rhyu's remarks, adding that the recent departure of core supporters was difficult to explain without that factor.
Some in political circles say that because Lee has tried to change the terms of debate with a mid-sized reshuffle, he may look for a turnaround through the confirmation hearings ahead. The argument is that the government could signal, in the course of preparing for the hearings, that it is ready to shift policy in response to public opinion. An official in the ruling bloc said it would be important to defuse the strong negative sentiment surrounding some of the nominees.
