Memory Prices Surge as Long-Term Deals Tighten DRAM Supply

* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six news items tailored to each reader type.

1. LTAs Spark Second Memory Crunch as HBM, DRAM Prices Jump Again

Key points: With Samsung Electronics and SK hynix continuing to sign LTAs with big tech customers, the average HBM export price rose 9.5% from the previous month to $76.13, topping $70 for the first time. In the second quarter, when HBM4 supply began in earnest, the average export price was $60.22, a 47% vertical climb from $40.94 in the first quarter. Rising HBM4 production has also created a supply crunch in the commodity DRAM used for stacking, sending the average July DRAM export price up 24.3% to $22.9. Samsung Electronics is reviewing a conversion of foundry lines at its Pyeongtaek campus to memory production, while SK hynix is exploring the establishment of a plant in Japan and even acquisitions of materials, parts and equipment suppliers, accelerating the race to expand supply.

2. Foreigners Exit, Trading Value Hits Yearly Low; Bio and Brokerage Shares Take Direct Hit

Key points: After hawkish Jackson Hole remarks by Fed Chair Warsh, the probability of a September base rate hike surged to 59.7%, concentrating downward pressure on rate-sensitive growth stocks. Alteogen (-3.91%), ABL Bio (-5.46%) and Mirae Asset Securities (-4.01%) all declined, leaving the KOSDAQ relatively weaker than the KOSPI. Average daily trading value on the KOSPI in August was 25.75 trillion won, half the June peak of 50.35 trillion won, while investor deposits stood at 99.81 trillion won, with more than 30 trillion won flowing out in two months. Foreign investors sold a net 10.17 trillion won in August alone, extending net selling for a fourth consecutive month since May, and observers say thin-ice trading is unavoidable until the September FOMC.

3. HBM4 Landscape Shifts as Outlooks Split for Samsung, SK hynix

Key points: Over the past month, Samsung Electronics rose 1.18% while SK hynix fell 8.98%, a stark divergence in short-term share performance, and foreign investors sold a net 5.98 trillion won of SK hynix compared with net selling of just 785.2 billion won for Samsung Electronics. With Samsung Electronics' HBM4 shipment share expanding and yields confirmed to have improved by more than 5 percentage points, LS Securities raised its target price to 450,000 won. For SK hynix, it lowered its HBM operating margin forecast to 60% from 80% on pressure from Samsung's diversification of supply lines, cutting the target price to 2.4 million won. BofA suggested that if AI demand growth and limited supply increases continue, global DRAM revenue growth could exceed 80% in 2027, keeping the industry outlook firmly optimistic. Analysts say the key to share performance ahead is how well each company maintains technological superiority in next-generation products and its share within major customers.

4. Retirement Pension Investors Return to U.S. Markets

Key points: Among the top five net-bought holdings in August by 85,172 defined contribution (DC) and individual retirement pension (IRP) customers, 80% were U.S. index ETFs, with TIGER U.S. S&P500 ranking first at 89.4 billion won. U.S. index ETFs topped net buying for a second straight month after July, with analysts saying rising volatility in the domestic market accelerated the shift of long-term investment money to U.S. markets. Among domestic equity products, only KODEX AI Semiconductor TOP2 Plus, which includes Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, entered the top five at 18.8 billion won. On a cumulative return basis, KODEX AI Semiconductor TOP2 Plus gained 107.49%, far outpacing U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs, which averaged 8% and 12% respectively, highlighting a widening gap between short-term volatility and medium- to long-term performance.

5. Vingroup to Issue 400 Billion Won Bond, Expanding Inbound Flows Into Korea's Debt Market

Key points: Vingroup, Vietnam's largest business group, is pursuing a plan to raise up to 400 billion won in South Korea through a three-year single-tranche private placement, making inbound demand for the Korean bond market increasingly visible. Amid rising global interest rates, Vingroup can cut the roughly 10% rate it would pay on a three-year issue in Vietnam by about 1 percentage point by issuing in South Korea. Following APP Group's $85 million raise in March, Meta is also exploring a possible won-denominated bond issue, part of a string of foreign companies tapping the won market. Domestic conglomerates, by contrast, are clearly shifting from bonds to bank loans, with won-denominated bond issuance down about 20% this year.

6. High Rates Rewrite the Funding Playbook

Key points: As globally rising interest rates push corporate funding strategies into a period of upheaval, a divergence is emerging: foreign companies are flocking to Korea's bond market while domestic conglomerates move to bank loans. Doosan Enerbility scrapped a planned $300 million foreign-currency bond issue and turned to bank loans, while Lotte Rental and Hanwha Q CELLS America Holdings are pursuing foreign-currency bonds to fund operations but face rates in the 5% range without guarantees from financial institutions. SK Group and Hanwha Group are reducing won-denominated bond issuance and shifting funding channels to policy money such as the National Growth Fund and to bank loans. Samsung Biologics is also reviewing loans instead of refinancing 120 billion won of corporate bonds, with analysts saying the high-rate environment is reshaping corporate financial decision-making across the board.

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