As U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly signals interest in North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, a report has forecast a strong chance that a U.S.-North Korea summit will be held after the U.S. midterm elections in November. If such a meeting takes place, the report says, South Korea must prepare closely for a range of scenarios in the denuclearization talks — from discussions of a nuclear freeze and limits on missile tests, to a symbolic meeting with no substantive progress, to the possibility that Washington shifts blame to Seoul if the talks collapse.
Min Tae-eun, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, made the assessment in a report titled "President Trump Signals a U.S.-North Korea Summit: Background of the Proposal and Response Measures," released on the 25th. "With the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding having expired and the two sides now in renegotiation and combat, it appears difficult to arrange within a month or two," Min said. Min added that "a U.S.-North Korea summit would offer little tangible benefit to the Republican Party in an election centered on the economy, immigration and war, and working-level preparations between Washington and Pyongyang, which have had little communication, will require time."
The report concluded that a summit is more likely to take place only after the November midterms. Min noted it could come in early next year. With the war in Iran continuing, a U.S.-North Korea summit held immediately after the midterms would have little effect if the Republicans lose both the House and the Senate. "We must also consider that working-level preparations could prove difficult after the election, due to shifts in the makeup of the U.S. Congress and personnel matters," Min explained.
Preparations for the possibility of a summit taking place must also be carried out closely. "In Trump's first term, the United States learned that its ultimate goal for denuclearization differs from North Korea's, and that talks break down the moment they try to close that gap," Min said. "Given that, there is a strong chance Washington will pursue 'the meeting itself' with low negotiating goals." During the 2018-2019 U.S.-North Korea summit phase, the two sides agreed on the phrase "complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." But the United States understood this as "a full declaration and dismantlement of nuclear facilities beyond Yongbyon," while North Korea accepted it only as "the dismantlement of Yongbyon." Combined with inadequate working-level coordination, this led to the collapse of the talks.
Min stressed that "beyond denuclearization and a nuclear freeze, we must prepare various individual scenarios — such as limits on missile production and testing, a ban on the transfer of nuclear weapons technology and a symbolic meeting — and communicate closely with the United States so that our views are reflected." Min added that "we must prepare for the possibility that both President Trump and North Korea will blame South Korea if the talks fall through or end without results." In particular, Trump could forcefully raise trade pressure alongside issues such as defense cost-sharing and claims of a security free ride.
Trump posted a photo of his 2019 meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at Panmunjom on his social media platform Truth Social on the 15th local time, and the next day said he had "a very good relationship with Kim Jong-un" and had ordered a scaling back of joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises. On the 19th, he anticipated a summit with Kim within the year but avoided answering whether North Korea's denuclearization remained the goal. On the 24th, Trump posted three photos taken with Kim during 2018-2019, signaling his willingness for U.S.-North Korea dialogue.
Such active conciliatory gestures are interpreted as an attempt to break through domestic political difficulties ahead of the midterms. For this reason, some analysts suggest Trump may have no real intention of advancing U.S.-North Korea relations, as a repeat of the 2019 "Hanoi no-deal" could backfire. One diplomatic source said, "Because a lack of results could be counterproductive, there is a possibility he will make only 'empty gestures' and use it solely to divert attention from the Iran conflict."
