President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating fell to a new post-inauguration low, putting his hold on the 40% mark in doubt. The relief from last week's final poll, which showed his positive and negative ratings tied at 45% (Gallup Korea) and suggested the decline had stopped, has evaporated, and a heavy mood has again settled over the Presidential Office.
In a Realmeter survey released on the 24th, covering 2,026 voters aged 18 and over nationwide surveyed from the 18th to the 21st, positive assessment of the president's performance stood at 40.2%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous week. It marked a sixth straight weekly decline by Realmeter's measure and a low since he took office.
Presidential spokesperson Kang Yu-jung said in a briefing that day, "We will place the lives of the people at the top of state affairs and carefully review the overall conduct of government," adding, "We will do our utmost to produce tangible results so that efforts and change can be felt on the ground in people's livelihoods and the economy." A somber mood lingered at the Presidential Office throughout the day. The office had hoped for a rebound by emphasizing a shift in housing policy and a policy stance prioritizing young adults, but the slide has hardly stopped, and there are signs that even core support bases such as Honam are wavering.
Lee's approval in the Honam region fell 8.8 percentage points in a week to 64.7%. In Seoul, where backlash against housing policy has been strong, positive assessment slipped another 0.9 percentage point in a week to 35.3%. The shift was even larger in party support. Support for the Democratic Party fell 6.0 percentage points from the previous week to 41.9%, and in Honam the party's support plunged 21.2 percentage points to 55.7% from 76.9% in the prior survey.
Within the Democratic Party, some analysts say party support has returned to its underlying level as the "convention bounce" formed around the Aug. 17 national convention has faded. The 55.7% support for the party in Honam is similar to the level in the second week of May (57.2%), before the party convention. Rep. Park Ji-won (Gunsan-Gimje-Buan, North Jeolla) stressed, "The drop in Honam support must be taken seriously," adding, "We must restore trust through solid results on mega-projects and other efforts." Supreme Council member Choi Min-hee pointed to the media's responsibility at the party's Supreme Council meeting that day, saying it was "because of one-sided media criticism and reporting that sows division."
Amid this, the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle is gaining weight after Lee accepted the resignation of Justice Minister Jung Sung-ho that day. The Presidential Office, which had drawn a line by saying there would be no reshuffle aimed at changing the political mood, now appears to be leaving the door open following the acceptance of Jung's resignation. However, on the judgment that a large-scale personnel move all at once could burden the conduct of state affairs, a "two-track" plan is being cited as likely: first replacing some ministries, including the Justice Ministry and the Ministry of SMEs and Startups — left vacant by Han Seong-sook's selection as prime minister — before carrying out a medium-scale or larger reshuffle around year-end.
Meanwhile, the Realmeter survey was conducted by automated response (ARS) using randomly generated mobile numbers (100% wireless). The presidential performance survey had a response rate of 3.2% and a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while the party support survey had a response rate of 2.9% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
