The number of births in Korea is expected to surpass 310,000 this year. As the trend of low births that persisted for years maintains a rebound, expectations are growing that this could signal a long-term improvement in the population structure.
According to the Ministry of Health and Welfare (MOHW) and the National Assembly's Health and Welfare Committee on the 21st, the number of pregnant women who registered their pregnancies at public health centers from May last year to April this year totaled 354,409. While the number of pregnancy registrations is not an official government indicator, it is used as a leading indicator to gauge the number of births. Given that pregnant women generally visit public health centers within about two months, the figure covering May of the previous year through April of the given year is used as the most accurate indicator for estimating the annual number of births.
Considering that the proportion of pregnancies that do not lead to birth is typically around 10%, the number of births this year is projected to reach approximately 319,000. It would be the first time births recover to the 300,000 range since 2019.
The short-term trend through the second quarter of this year is also positive. Cumulative pregnancy registrations through the second quarter of this year stood at 180,762, rising steadily from 129,405 in 2023, 147,714 in 2024, and 162,431 last year.
It is also significant that the figure is exceeding the projected future total fertility rate of 0.8 under the "high estimate scenario" presented by the National Data Agency, which reflected marriage and birth trends through 2022. Forecasts have also emerged that the point at which the total fertility rate recovers to 1.0 could come sooner than expected.
The rise in marriages is cited as the biggest factor behind the increase in births. As marriages postponed during the COVID-19 period resumed, the number of marriages rose sharply last year, and this effect is now leading to births this year, analysts said. In fact, the number of births tends to move with a time lag of about one to two years behind the number of marriages. In addition, the expansion of childbirth and childcare support by the government and local governments, along with improvements to the parental leave system, are also assessed to have had some influence on decisions to have children.
However, some say it is too early to conclude that the recent increase in births represents a structural reversal of the low-birth problem. This is because the trend reflects a demographic factor in which the population of women in their early 30s, the childbearing age group, has temporarily increased, and it also remains uncertain how long the effect of the rise in marriages will last. Accordingly, some point out that to sustain the increase in births, policies must accompany it that improve the structural factors constraining marriage and childbirth among young people, such as housing, jobs, and childcare.
