The defining feature of recent climate extremes is that their intensity falls far outside the range of past statistics. Heat waves described as the worst in a century and rainfall described as the heaviest in 200 years have hit one region after another around the world for several years running. The assumption of stationarity — that the future can be projected from the past — is breaking down. No need to look far: southern Korea this summer swung within days from an extreme drought that pushed reservoir levels as low as 1% to downpours exceeding 120 millimeters an hour. The middle ground has disappeared.
Nor do the places that caused the problem by emitting greenhouse gases necessarily suffer the damage. The massive flooding triggered by a Himalayan glacier collapse in Nepal is one such case. Nepal accounts for just 0.01% of cumulative global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet recovery from the flooding is estimated to cost as much as $5 billion, or about 6.76 trillion won. Relief is arriving from around the world, but the hard reality is that getting back on its feet is the victim's own burden. The Loss and Damage Fund, which the United Nations is building to support developing countries where climate damage is concentrated, stands at only one-tenth of what is needed.
If climate extremes fall outside the range of prediction, and if recovery must be shouldered alone, then what needs to be done is clear. Preparedness must be strengthened. That means acknowledging that climate extremes are an immediate reality and working to adapt to extreme conditions. This is why academics and policymakers have been actively arguing that climate adaptation should be elevated to a core pillar of climate response. A pragmatic view is spreading that an exclusive focus on cutting emissions leaves little room to deal with the heat waves and downpours already at hand.
Experts stress that climate adaptation is no simple task. Adding shade canopies and cooling fog sprayers, repairing retaining walls and overhauling drainage and sewer systems are not enough. In its monthly journal published last month, the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements (KRIHS) advises that infrastructure needs to be redesigned from the ground up. Design loads for major facilities should be reassessed to reflect frequency analysis of non-stationary conditions in climate change scenarios, it said. The direction must be toward greater resilience even when climate extremes strike.
Turning climate adaptation into an industry, as a way to draw in private participation, is another option worth considering — much as electric vehicles, renewable energy and batteries have been commercialized as tools for cutting emissions and have attracted large-scale investment. McKinsey has projected that 10 resilience technology fields, including building restoration, power grid durability and logistics and supply chains, will draw investor attention going forward.
Above all, climate extremes cannot be dismissed as a summer nightmare that passes. There is no knowing what form they will take next year. If the climate is moving beyond the range of normal, our preparations cannot remain anchored to the normal of the past.
