President Donald Trump this week dismissed Iran's attack on the United Arab Emirates as trivial. "Iran shoots off a drone once in a while, but their attacks are only worth being a nuisance," he said, playing down the threat. But what if Iran is preparing something bigger? What if Iran is planning an "October surprise" ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November?
Trump has reinstated a blockade that weighs on Iran's economy and has cut its oil exports to near zero. He has quietly taken control of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces are escorting tankers that pass through the Persian Gulf carrying roughly 10 million barrels of oil each day. And last week, Trump vowed to impose what he called an "economic D-Day" on Iran. Describing it as "the most overwhelming economic operation ever taken against any country," he called on allies to join in.
Most important, Trump announced to U.S. voters that he would "never apologize" for taking military action to stop Iran's nuclear drive. "If you have to pay a little bit more for gasoline, remember it is to keep a very evil country from having nuclear weapons," he said.
The problem is that while Trump is pressuring Iran economically, Iran's leaders know he is reluctant to resume large-scale combat operations. They have tested him repeatedly. They have launched drone and missile attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and have even fired ballistic missiles at U.S. troops stationed in Jordan. And they have watched Trump come to the brink of ordering a major final military strike several times, only to pull back at the last moment. This has emboldened Iran.
The United States has destroyed more than 85% of Iran's defense industrial base, sunk its navy, grounded its air force and decimated its conventional military. But by halting the air campaign against Iran, code-named "Epic Fury," Washington left Iran with enough firepower to threaten energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, U.S. military bases and vessels sailing quietly through the strait. Iran could use that firepower before Americans go to the polls in November. One reason Trump has hesitated to resume large-scale combat is concern that Iran could retaliate by attacking energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf states. That would remove those countries' oil from the world market and could trigger a global recession.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, Iran's leadership is preparing to widen the war. Iran's leaders are said to be talking more and more about strike operations on U.S. territory. Iran could attack energy facilities to send oil prices soaring just before Americans vote. It could also try to kill U.S. troops. In that case, Trump would have no choice but to launch a retaliatory operation, and the war would resume. Iran could also attempt terrorist attacks on the U.S. mainland or on the territory of U.S. allies.
Iran believes it is winning its fight with Trump. As Jack Keane, a former vice chief of staff of the U.S. Army, has pointed out, Iran's leaders may calculate that if they strike before the midterms, Democrats are likely to take control of Congress and could perhaps cut off funding for the war. They may also believe the United States intends to attack Iran after the midterms anyway. If so, they could conclude that it serves their interest to resume combat at the moment when it would inflict the greatest political damage on Trump.
The only way to eliminate this option is for the United States to act first — that is, to deliver a final and decisive blow against the Iranian regime. If Iran does attempt an "October surprise," Trump will have no choice but to resume large-scale combat. Before starting the war with Iran in February, Trump weighed the risks of military action against the risks of inaction. He concluded that the risks of inaction were far greater. Those risks of inaction still exist today.
