The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is moving forward with a $2.8 billion munitions sale to Israel that includes 40,000 heavy bombs in the 2,000-pound (about 907-kilogram) class. Domestic support for Israel has weakened since the Gaza war, while the cost of the U.S. campaign against Iran in the Middle East has climbed sharply, adding to the political and fiscal strain.
According to The New York Times and other foreign media on the 15th, the Trump administration approved the sale to Israel of 20,000 MK-84 and 20,000 BLU-117 aerial bombs, both in the 2,000-pound class, along with 20,000 I-2000 penetrating warheads designed to destroy underground facilities. It informally notified the congressional committees with jurisdiction over the sale.
Israel has used the U.S.-made heavy bombs in Gaza and Lebanon, and their wide blast radius has drawn persistent criticism over civilian casualties in densely populated areas. In 2024, the administration of then-President Joe Biden also temporarily halted deliveries of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel over concerns about civilian harm.
The proposed sale contrasts with shifting U.S. public opinion. In a Quinnipiac University poll in June, 48% of U.S. voters said Washington supports Israel too much. Among Democratic voters, the figure reached 66%. That marks a sharp rise from 2017, when Quinnipiac first asked the question and 16% of all respondents answered that way.
The Trump administration has nonetheless maintained its policy of helping Israel sustain its military strength. The Middle East conflict has dragged on since the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on Feb. 28, driving up not only Israel's munitions requirements but also U.S. military war costs.
The cost of the U.S. military operation against Iran, which began in February, reached about $38 billion as of Aug. 1, according to a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office.
Costs will grow further if the war continues. The CBO estimated that low-intensity fighting on the scale seen in May and June would require an additional $2 billion a month, while combat at July's level would require about $3 billion a month. More intense fighting could push the monthly figure higher.
Dwindling munitions stockpiles are another problem. The CBO noted that heavy use of missile-defense interceptors could leave U.S. reserves depleted for years. Reuters, citing the CBO analysis, reported that replenishing the munitions already expended could take up to five years. Analysts also raised concerns that a shortage of interceptor missiles could constrain the U.S. military's ability to respond if another large-scale conflict broke out over China and Taiwan.
The $2.8 billion arms sale to Israel ultimately reflects more than a bilateral defense deal, pointing to the layered burdens facing U.S. policy in the Middle East. Support for Israel at home is weakening, while weapons requirements and war costs are rising as the front expands from Gaza and Lebanon to Iran. The debate over supplying another 40,000 one-ton bombs could widen into a broader argument over how much cost the United States is willing to bear in a prolonged Middle East war.
