WASHINGTON — With the U.S. midterm elections eight weeks away, warning signs are emerging on multiple fronts for President Donald Trump. While "shy Trump" voters who go undetected in polls are said to still exist, cost-of-living issues that could turn his most loyal supporters against him are becoming increasingly prominent, with diesel prices hitting record highs. Some observers even suggest a replay of the 2006 midterms, when opposition Democrats swept both chambers of Congress as public opposition to the prolonged Iraq War spread during President George W. Bush's second term.
The midterms, in which 35 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 House seats will be filled, are set for November 3. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats to the Democrats' 47, and 218 House seats to the Democrats' 214. One House seat is held by an independent and two are vacant. Republicans control both chambers.
Exactly eight weeks out, the overall mood works against Republicans. Trump's core base consists largely of farmers, and diesel — the fuel they use in their trucks — has climbed past levels seen under President Joe Biden to set record highs day after day. The national average diesel price reached $5.90 a gallon (about 3.8 liters) on Labor Day, September 7. Gasoline stood at $4.15 a gallon, the highest ever recorded for a Labor Day. Americans, for whom cars are a necessity, are highly sensitive to fuel prices.
The tariff war Trump triggered, and the disruption that followed, is also coming back to haunt him. Reuters noted that Texas ranchers were angered by Trump's decision to scrap tariffs on imported beef, while residents of Michigan and Maine could be hurt as the trade war with neighboring Canada escalates. Trump removed beef tariffs on major South American countries after beef prices surged. Barring a dramatic last-minute deal, Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the United States take effect at 12:01 a.m. on the 8th, U.S. Eastern time (1:01 p.m. Korea time the same day). Canada has carefully targeted its tariffs at products likely to hit workers in battleground states.
Democratic-leaning voters are also showing greater willingness to turn out. In a recent Reuters survey of 1,167 U.S. adults, 46% of respondents who identified as Democrats said they were "very enthusiastic" about the midterms, compared with just 31% of Republicans. The implication is that Republican-leaning voters may simply stay home rather than vote Democratic, while Democrats could turn out in force on a message of punishing the administration.
Unease about Trump is rising within his own party, and some Republicans are showing signs of distancing themselves. Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist, told the Financial Times that lawmakers return to their districts every week to face concerns about housing costs and rising prices, only for Trump to publicly dismiss those worries. He stressed that this had to change.
A closer look at the two chambers shows a Democratic House majority is treated as all but certain. Betting site Polymarket put the odds of a Democratic win in the House at 82%, while Kalshi placed the probability at 85%.
The Senate looks more likely to stay in Republican hands, with Polymarket giving Republicans a 55% chance and Kalshi 53%. Still, Democrats have recently grown hopeful about a Senate majority as well. From the current 53-47 split, Democrats need four seats to take control. Reuters counts nine battleground states: Texas, North Carolina, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Georgia, Ohio and New Hampshire. Among states with Republican incumbents, Democratic candidates lead in polls in North Carolina, Maine and Ohio.
Trump will take the stage on two consecutive days at the first-ever Republican midterm convention, held in Dallas on the 9th and 10th, launching his campaign in earnest. He is expected to remind voters broadly that an election is being held this year and to promote his record, including tax cuts and foreign investment in the United States. The outlook is not entirely bright for Democrats either. A split between the party's progressive "democratic socialist" wing and its mainstream could weigh on the campaign.
If Democrats retake the House, they are poised to open hearings digging into allegations of misconduct by Trump. They are also expected to oppose major legislation, including budget bills. If they also win the Senate, which holds confirmation power over senior administration appointments, they are seen blocking nominees repeatedly and tightening oversight further.
