WASHINGTON — With the U.S. midterm elections eight weeks away, warning signals are mounting for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Kitchen-table issues that could turn Trump's most loyal supporters against him, including surging diesel prices, are coming to the fore.
Major foreign news outlets reported on the 7th that the midterm elections, which will fill 35 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 House seats, will be held on November 3 this year. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats to the Democrats' 47, while the House stands at 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats. With one independent and two vacancies, Republicans hold majorities in both chambers.
The overall mood favors the Democrats. Trump's core base consists largely of farmers, and the price of diesel, the fuel they use in their trucks, has been setting record highs day after day. The national average diesel price reached $5.90 per gallon (about 3.8 liters) that day. Gasoline also hit $4.15 per gallon, a record high for the Labor Day benchmark.
Meanwhile, renewed fighting between the United States and Iran has heightened concerns about disruptions to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. November Brent crude traded at $98.45 a barrel on the 8th, up 1.45% that afternoon, while October West Texas Intermediate rose 2.6% to $93.91.
In the race for both chambers, the Democrats are all but certain to win back a House majority. Betting site Polymarket put the probability of a Democratic victory in the House at 82%, and Kalshi at 85%.
The Senate looks more likely to stay in Republican hands. Polymarket gives Republicans a 55% chance of victory and Kalshi 53%. But expectations have been rising among Democrats that a Senate majority may also be within reach. According to Reuters, nine states are currently battlegrounds: Texas, North Carolina, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Georgia, Ohio and New Hampshire.
Republicans hold the incumbent seat in six of those states and Democrats in three. To retake the Senate, Democrats must hold all three and pick up four more. In three of the Republican-held states — North Carolina, Maine and Ohio — Democratic candidates lead in the polls.
In North Carolina, where Republican Senator Thom Tillis has declined to seek reelection, the race pits Michael Whatley, a Trump ally who until recently chaired the Republican National Committee, against former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper of the Democratic Party. Cooper, whose name recognition is high from his time as governor, leads Whatley 51.6% to 42.6% in the average of the five most recent polls.
In Maine, Republican Susan Collins, who has won five consecutive Senate terms since 1996, is facing Democrat Troy Jackson. The average of the two most recent polls shows Jackson at 48.5% and Collins at 46.0% — within the margin of error, but with Jackson ahead. Maine, which borders Canada and has a large fishing industry along its coast, has seen public opinion sour on the party in power amid the recent surge in diesel prices, the fuel used by fishing vessels, and the tariff war with Canada. In Ohio, incumbent Jon Husted, who filled the seat vacated when then-Senator J.D. Vance became vice president, is running against Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former senator from the state. The average of the two most recent polls put Brown at 50.5% and Husted at 44.5%.
Within the Republican Party, lawmakers have joined hands with Democrats on tax increases, previously a taboo before an election. The Washington Post reported that Republican Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio proposed a plan this summer with Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts to strengthen payroll taxes for Social Security. Republican Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, has also come around in support. They argue that payroll taxes on high earners must be raised to prevent Social Security from running out of funds.
Trump has also been making moves aimed at deflecting unfavorable opinion at home. After the United States imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods on the 22nd of last month, Canada began levying targeted tariffs aimed at U.S. midterm battleground states starting the 8th, sending the two sides into a tariff slugfest. Trump threatened Canadian private jet maker Bombardier, telling it to "stop selling in the United States," and signaled harsher retaliation to come.
