Leaders from Russia, Iran, India and Pakistan gathered in Kyrgyzstan on the 31st for the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. With Iran and Russia each fighting a war and a U.S.-China summit expected soon, attention is on whether Chinese President Xi Jinping can strengthen Beijing's diplomatic leverage against Washington. The United States is competing for influence in the region as well, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio visiting Central Asia after China's outreach.
Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit, which opened in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, according to foreign media including the South China Morning Post and Russia's Tass news agency.
The two-day meeting, running through September 1, drew leaders from 17 countries, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, along with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The SCO is a multilateral body founded in 2001 under Chinese leadership. It has served as a forum for security and economic cooperation across Central Asia and Eurasia as a counterweight to the Western-led order, and now counts 25 participating countries after Iran joined in 2023.
The biggest question at the summit is whether Xi will take on a mediating role in the war in Iran, where attacks have resumed. Pezeshkian met Xi on the 31st and is scheduled to meet Putin on September 1.
China can wield considerable influence because it serves as an economic lifeline for Iran, which is under military and economic attack from the United States. Iran also maintains strategic ties with Russia, supplying the suicide drones Moscow has used in its attacks on Ukraine. With mediators Pakistan and Egypt also attending, behind-the-scenes diplomacy is expected as the parties search for a way to end the war in Iran.
Xi's public stance on the war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, is also being closely watched. The timing is significant: CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a secret visit to Moscow last week to press Russia to end the fighting, and China and Russia are expected to discuss the conflict.
Foreign media see China's leverage over Russia strengthening further at these talks, as Moscow's isolation from Western countries has deepened with the war and its economy has grown rapidly more dependent on China. The Wall Street Journal said this dynamic could give Xi bargaining power to press Putin to halt the war and begin negotiations.
Still, Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Xi is expected to stick to language that publicly warns against escalation and calls for dialogue and political negotiations.
Russia's top priority is closing the deal on Power of Siberia 2, a 2,600-kilometer natural gas pipeline running into China. According to the Journal, Beijing is demanding gas at prices as low as Russia's domestic level in return for joining the project.
Separately, Xi and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov held a bilateral meeting the same day and agreed to deepen cooperation and working-level coordination in areas including railways, e-commerce and artificial intelligence. The two leaders signed and exchanged more than 20 documents covering investment, transportation, science and technology and other fields.
