Japan's rice inventories have swelled to a record 2.43 million metric tons, more than 400,000 tons above the 1.8 million to 2 million tons typically seen as an appropriate level. As of the end of June 2026, the stockpile is projected to grow by up to 16% more within a year. Just a year ago, soaring prices in what was dubbed the "Reiwa rice turmoil" pushed Japan to import rice even from South Korea — leaving the country now in the opposite situation.
According to the Nikkei on the 25th, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries recently briefed lawmakers of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on supply and demand conditions, formally signaling the need to buy back government reserve rice. The rationale is twofold: to absorb market supply and halt price declines, while replenishing government reserves that have run low. The ministry said now is an opportune time to buy, given the low risk of a supply shortage.
The government aims to maintain reserves of about 1 million tons. Actual remaining stock stands at only about 320,000 tons. That reflects the release of roughly 60% of the 960,000 tons held at the end of March 2025 during last year's price surge, including volumes diverted to processing use. About half of the remaining stock is from the 2020 crop and is considered too aged for consumption.
Behind the buildup lies the timing of the release. The government kept its warehouses closed for more than half a year after rice disappeared from supermarket shelves, and full-scale supply began only in March 2025. When low-priced reserve rice, at around 2,000 yen for 5 kilograms, belatedly hit the market, it eased the burden on consumers but left the more expensive freshly harvested 2025 crop unsold. That is the direct cause of the surge in private inventories.
The policy on boosting output was also reversed within half a year. While then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said last August that he would shift toward increasing production, Agriculture Minister Norikazu Suzuki revived "production geared to demand" in October, shortly after the change in government. Farmers had already finished sowing. That is why output of staple rice from the 2026 crop is projected to exceed the previous year.
Prices are already collapsing. Early-maturing varieties from Kyushu traded in July at 20% to 40% below year-earlier levels. In Miyazaki Prefecture, the price of 60 kilograms of brown rice fell below the production cost of 20,535 yen calculated by a government-recognized industry group — a level that fails even to cover costs. That is why the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations (JA Zenchu) is pressing the government to start buying early while supply remains ample.
Experts point out that policy direction is hard to change quickly, given that the crop is harvested only once a year. Nobuhiro Suzuki, a specially appointed professor at the University of Tokyo, said, "Both consumers and producers have been buffeted by policy confusion."
Some observers say the glut will not last long. Farms and the farming population are shrinking rapidly, and gains in efficiency are not keeping pace, raising the prospect that domestic production may fail to meet demand in the 2030s. Japan's food self-sufficiency rate stands at 37% on a calorie basis. The country has remained self-sufficient in rice alone, but there are warnings that even that foundation could be shaken if the decline in farms and rising production costs are left unaddressed.
