According to U.S. military outlet The War Zone on Oct. 18 (local time), the George Washington Carrier Strike Group (CSG), which had been deployed in the Pacific, passed through the Singapore Strait on Oct. 13 and is heading to the Middle East. The move is to relieve the Abraham Lincoln, whose crew had been on nine months of sea duty and where a crew member even attempted to jump overboard.
As a result, not a single U.S. aircraft carrier remains in Pacific waters. A situation has emerged in which the carrier — the symbol of U.S. naval power — has disappeared from this region, the front line of the U.S.-China contest for hegemony.
This is not the first U.S. carrier gap in the Pacific. In August 2024, amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, there was a three-week period when no combat-ready carrier was deployed in the Pacific. Until then, however, such cases had been rare.
This time, though, the carrier gap coincides with a moment when President Trump has scaled back South Korea-U.S. joint exercises to draw North Korean leader Kim Jong-un into talks, and ahead of a summit with President Xi Jinping around Sept. 24.
U.S. online outlet Axios noted, "President Trump has sharply scaled back South Korea-U.S. joint exercises with an eye toward resuming dialogue with North Korea," adding, "And with the carrier gap coinciding just ahead of next month's summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it could lend weight to China's argument that 'America's security commitments cannot be trusted.'" There is also talk that if the war with Iran is not resolved and the Middle East deployment drags on, the absence of a U.S. carrier in the Pacific could persist for months.
Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel, said, "While the likelihood of China launching a full-scale invasion is low, it could use this gap to flex its presence in the Pacific."
Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said, "Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan will watch China display its military power in America's absence," and, "If this pattern repeats, doubts will inevitably grow over whether the U.S. would actually come to their aid in a crisis." He also warned, "Just by instilling the perception among neighboring countries that 'America won't protect us,' China no longer needs to wage war," adding, "Deepening distrust of security commitments alone could naturally push regional countries toward China."
The U.S. Navy has 11 aircraft carriers, but they are deployed on a rotational basis due to maintenance and other factors, so simultaneous operation is limited. Currently, the Lincoln and the George H.W. Bush are in the Middle East, and the Washington is joining them; excluding these, only 3 of the 11 carriers are said to be actually operational.
In an editorial, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) cited that President Trump, while ordering a reduction in South Korea-U.S. exercises and showing a conciliatory attitude toward North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, criticized South Korea for "not joining efforts to denuclearize Iran."
The WSJ particularly voiced concern that "such moves by President Trump will further entrench the perception in Asia and Europe that America is becoming an unreliable ally," and that "this could amplify calls within South Korea for its own nuclear armament." It added, "Regardless of President Trump's intentions, the entire world has come to question America's ability to fulfill its security commitments," and, "China appears to welcome the Washington's move to the Middle East, and it is using this as an opportunity to spread the message to neighboring countries that 'you cannot rely on America's defense.'"
