※[Global Morning Briefing] summarizes global news delivered by Seoul Economic Daily.
Losing the House, Facing Hearings... Trump's '100-Day Countdown'
With the U.S. midterm elections 100 days away, the prevailing forecast is that Democrats will reclaim the House while Republicans hold the Senate. In that scenario, President Donald Trump is expected to face a dual burden during his remaining term: a political landscape dominated by hearings and weakened legislative momentum.
In the November 3 election, all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be newly contested. According to a July 24 tally by the election analysis site Decision Desk HQ, Democrats have a 60% probability of winning the House (a projected 225 seats), while Republicans have a 60% probability of winning the Senate. Even if the two parties reach a tie in the Senate, the structure favors Republicans thanks to the vice president's tie-breaking vote.
The variable is prices. As of the 25th, the average gasoline price stood at $4.11 per gallon, again breaching the psychological barrier of $4, while diesel prices reached $5.28 per gallon, approaching the 2022 peak. In a Politico poll, 43% of respondents rated President Trump more critically than former President Joe Biden on the economy. President Trump is attempting to rally his base by branding some Democratic factions' positions as "communism," but concerns about voter defection due to price burdens are emerging even within the Republican Party.
If Democrats take the House, hearings targeting the business dealings of President Trump's family, among other matters, are expected. Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, considered a candidate for House Speaker, said he would hold those involved in wrongdoing accountable. However, since an impeachment measure would be difficult to clear the Senate threshold, the practical impact is being discussed as likely to lead to policy gridlock and a strengthening of hardline foreign policy.
A 'SpaceX-Level' Subscription Frenzy Rushes to STAR Market
China's largest DRAM manufacturer, CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies), lists on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market on the 27th, heralding the arrival of the world's fourth-largest memory company. The listing is expected to raise 66.6 billion yuan (about 14 trillion won), the largest ever on the STAR Market, with a market capitalization based on the offering projected to reach about 580 billion yuan (125 trillion won).
CXMT's retail investor subscription fervor recalls SpaceX, which listed on the U.S. Nasdaq last month. The general subscription competition ratio recorded 212 to 1, and the total subscription volume from retail investors reached 7.07 trillion yuan (9.4 million filings), 10 times the level of the SpaceX listing. Converted based on the price of CXMT stock-linked futures traded on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, the market capitalization soars to about 2.9 trillion yuan, a level surpassing the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the top-ranked company by market capitalization on the Chinese mainland.
Founder and Chairman Zhu Yiming, born in 1972, is a graduate of Tsinghua University's Department of Physics and established CXMT together with the government of Hefei, China, in 2016. The company recently signed five-year supply contracts of more than $3 billion with Tencent and more than $7 billion with ByteDance, respectively. In particular, CXMT's DDR5 64GB server memory module drew attention as it is sold at a higher price than Samsung Electronics' ($1,240). However, its in-house developed high-bandwidth memory (HBM) technology lags several years behind competitors, marking a task for the future.
The industry expects the results of this listing to influence the future listing trends of Chinese technology companies, including NAND flash company YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies) and AI company DeepSeek.
"I Only Spoke Honestly"... DeepSeek Abruptly 'Halts' Fundraising
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has reportedly abruptly suspended its second round of fundraising. It is interpreted that DeepSeek felt burdened after a transcript of a private investment meeting held by Liang Wenfeng, the DeepSeek founder known as a "reclusive genius," was leaked externally.
On the 25th (local time), Bloomberg reported, citing multiple sources, that DeepSeek had conveyed to some investors its intention to temporarily halt fundraising. DeepSeek had originally planned to secure more than 10 billion yuan (about 2.1 trillion won) through this round.
The trigger was a transcript of founder Liang Wenfeng's investor meeting last May, reported on the 24th by local media including China's Yicai. At the meeting, Liang acknowledged that the only gap in the U.S.-China AI industry is computing resources such as Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs), and that China's technological development is temporarily stalled. He stated that he currently holds about 20,000 Nvidia H100 chips and would secure as much volume as possible going forward.
At the same time, he forecast that there is no problem with the Chinese-made chip ecosystem, and that a trend of gradual replacement with Chinese-made chips would emerge within a year. Regarding Nvidia's software platform CUDA, he assessed that its monopoly power is rapidly collapsing as building a new ecosystem using AI becomes possible, and he announced plans to participate deeply in Huawei's AI chip ecosystem.
Liang made clear that DeepSeek's goal is not competition for market share but the realization of artificial general intelligence (AGI), and that it would focus on this goal rather than short-term monetization.
Even as the Gunfire Ceases, Houthi and Saudi Instability Persists
As U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a halt to airstrikes against Iran, the two weeks of attacks between the U.S. and Iran have entered a temporary lull. However, the front lines appear to be spreading into conflict between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi Arabia-led coalition.
According to a report by Axios on the 26th (local time), President Trump did not approve the airstrike plan even after being briefed by the military on the 24th, the 14th day of strikes. He ordered a halt to the airstrikes, saying that "making a deal with Iran is a wiser strategy." This decision came just hours after an Omani delegation arrived in Iran to conduct negotiations on reopening the strait, and Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei assessed that the negotiations were beneficial and had made progress. However, it remains unclear whether President Trump will accept a final agreement.
While direct clashes between the U.S. and Iran have subsided, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked Saudi Aramco-related facilities in the Red Sea port cities of Jizan and Yanbu, as well as two Saudi-related oil tankers, with missiles and drones. In response, the Saudi-led coalition counterattacked Houthi positions.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia is increasing its reliance on Egypt's Suez Canal instead of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait it previously used. Passing through the Suez Canal requires going via the Mediterranean, Gibraltar, and the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transport costs and insurance premiums and potentially delaying deliveries by weeks, while shallow water depth also restricts the operation of very large crude carriers (VLCCs). According to ship-tracking firm Vortexa, crude oil transport volume through the Suez Canal in July recorded its highest level in two and a half years. Goldman Sachs warned in a report last week that oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel.
