As fighting between the United States and Iran was halted for a third day, foreign media assessed that U.S. President Donald Trump has fallen into a dilemma over the Iran war. According to these accounts, three paths lie ahead — resuming all-out war, maintaining economic sanctions, or declaring a unilateral victory and withdrawing — but none is workable, leaving Trump deeply frustrated and behaving even more erratically than usual.
According to major foreign media on the 26th, the United States and Iran refrained from attacks on each other from the 24th through that day. The biggest reason is that dialogue between the two sides is under way. Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry, said in an interview with Austrian state broadcaster ORF that "the exchange of messages between the United States and Iran, as well as the activities of mediating countries, are still continuing."
It appears to have been China that turned back the clock on the stalled dialogue between the United States and Iran. According to Reuters, China is said to have requested mediation to ease U.S.-Iran tensions when Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Shanghai on the 16th. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi then met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the 25th at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) foreign ministers' meeting held in Kyrgyzstan and urged dialogue, saying, "The door to open negotiations must not be closed again." That day, Saudi media outlet Al Arabiya, citing sources, also reported that China was cooperating with Pakistan to resume U.S.-Iran talks.
Indeed, after the request from China, Iran's biggest "backer," the negotiation clock turned back as if by magic. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stressed on the 26th that "we held several deputy foreign minister-level talks with Oman in Tehran on the 24th and 25th," saying meaningful progress had been made in technical consultations on the issue of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States, burdened by surging oil prices just 100 days ahead of the midterm elections, also appears to have temporarily halted its attacks once dialogue resumed. U.S. online outlet Axios reported that Trump ordered a halt to airstrikes on Iran within hours of the Omani negotiating team arriving in Iran on the 24th. Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told Fox News on the 26th that "President Trump decided to temporarily halt the attacks to secure more time for a diplomatic resolution."
There was also a report that Trump held back a large-scale attack on Iran following a briefing on a "shortage of air-defense missiles." According to The New York Times (NYT), at a closed-door meeting between Trump and his aides on the 24th, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine warned that while resuming large-scale combat operations against Iran was possible, it would deplete the interceptor missiles available to U.S. forces to dangerous levels.
The problem lies ahead. Dialogue has resumed and the clashes have stopped for now, but skepticism is emerging inside Iran. A senior Iranian source told Reuters, "There is not much expectation that the U.S. decision to halt airstrikes will bring a significant change in the U.S. negotiating position," adding, "Skepticism outweighs optimism about the halt in attacks. The prevailing view is that this halt is a tactical measure rather than a genuine cessation," displaying caution. Although Iran said it had "made progress regarding the Strait of Hormuz" in its talks with Oman, it remains uncertain whether Iran will accept the free passage the United States wants, given that it has repeatedly emphasized control of the strait.
The NYT noted that "Trump has three options — military escalation, economic sanctions, and declaring victory before withdrawing," and that "each option appears unappealing to Trump for its own reasons." Even if he chooses military escalation, it is uncertain whether Iran will submit, and it could instead increase damage to Middle Eastern countries amid the shortage of interceptor missiles. In the case of economic sanctions, Iran, which receives covert support from China, Russia and others, is unlikely to collapse quickly. Declaring a unilateral victory and withdrawing could leave the stain of being the president who handed Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The NYT reported, citing close aides, that "these constraints have made Trump extremely frustrated and have intensified his characteristic unpredictable behavior." Indeed, that day too, Trump enjoyed a round of golf and then posted a slew of images depicting striking Iran with B-2 bombers, blowing up an Iranian oil tanker, and bombing Kharg Island.
