ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China's largest DRAM maker, is entering the final stretch toward its initial public offering (IPO). The listing is seen as a turning point for China's semiconductor self-reliance, given its potential to help chase down Samsung Electronics and SK hynix in the global memory market and to generate positive ripple effects across China's broader chip ecosystem, including equipment and materials. However, its investment plans for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which has emerged as the central axis of memory competition, were not included in this prospectus, and the technology gap with leading players remains wide, prompting some to argue that excessive concern is unwarranted.
Raising a Total of 6 Trillion Won for Aggressive Investment... Rapidly Chasing Micron's Production Capacity
On the 9th, CXMT announced through a prospectus posted on the Shanghai Stock Exchange that it will conduct online and offline subscriptions starting on the 16th of this month. The actual listing date is expected to be around the 24th.
CXMT plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan (about 6.53 trillion won) through this IPO. It is the second-largest offering in the history of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market (a trading market dedicated to science and technology stocks), following China's largest foundry, SMIC. Of the funds raised, 7.5 billion yuan will be invested in expanding and upgrading production capacity, 13 billion yuan in DRAM technology upgrades, and 9 billion yuan in next-generation research and development.
Founded in 2016, CXMT is headquartered in Hefei, Anhui Province. It also holds a production base in Beijing and is pushing to build a new fab (plant) in Shanghai. Buoyed by the AI boom, its global DRAM market share, which stood at just around 3% last year, rose rapidly to about 8% this year, and its net profit, which had been in the red, turned to a surplus starting last year. First-quarter revenue this year was 50.8 billion yuan, up 719% from a year earlier, while net profit soared 1,688% to 24.762 billion yuan.
The industry views this CXMT listing as a potentially symbolic turning point for China's semiconductor rise. China has raised its memory chip self-sufficiency rate from around 5% several years ago to 25% as of this year, and it is projected to reach 30% by 2028. If CXMT expands its production capacity through large-scale capital raising, this trend could gain further momentum, analysts say. U.S. semiconductor analysis firm SemiAnalysis forecast that CXMT's production capacity would grow to about 350,000 wafers per month by the end of this year, approaching Micron's 385,000 per month over the same period, and also projected that it would reach 500,000 per month by 2028, accounting for 17% of the world's total DRAM supply. In terms of production capacity alone, the outlook is that CXMT could soon overtake Micron to become the world's third-largest DRAM maker. As China simultaneously pursues the localization of its semiconductor supply chain, CXMT's increased production capacity is expected to benefit equipment and materials companies as well.
However, many assess that the gap remains wide in HBM, currently the central axis of DRAM industry competition. While Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have entered a race for HBM4 mass production, CXMT is aiming to mass-produce HBM3E only next year. This is because export controls on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, essential for mass-producing advanced semiconductors, are acting as a decisive bottleneck. In this prospectus, CXMT again did not specify a separate funding plan for HBM capacity expansion. SemiAnalysis estimated that as of the end of last year, of CXMT's total production capacity of 265,000 wafers per month, the volume allocated to HBM was about 5,000 wafers, less than 2% of the total. This share is projected to increase only gradually, to 30,000 by the end of this year and 55,000 by the end of 2027.
Analysts note that in DDR, the mainstream product for the latest servers and PCs, the technology gap with Korean companies stands at about two to three years. CXMT has begun mass-producing DDR5, but its yield is known to still be low, and the company has not disclosed specific figures. There is also a large difference in inventory turnover, which reflects the stability of production capacity. According to the prospectus, CXMT's inventory turnover from 2023 to 2025 was 0.78 times, 1.29 times, and 1.44 times, respectively. Over the same period, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron all exceeded 2 times.
Growth Centered on Commodity DRAM... Limits in High-Value Products and Overseas Markets Persist
CXMT's core revenue source is still commodity DRAM. Low-power DRAM (LPDDR), used in smartphones and tablet PCs, accounts for 66.43% of revenue, while DDR, used in servers and PCs, accounts for 31.87%. This is thanks to the way CXMT rapidly drew in domestic Chinese firms by emphasizing cost competitiveness and volume offensives amid the memory crunch. In fact, the proportion of CXMT DRAM adoption in Chinese Android products, excluding Huawei, has already surpassed 30%, and some observe that it could soon reach 50%. It is also reported to be in supply negotiations with Apple.
This is interpreted as the result of CXMT rapidly exploiting gaps in the commodity DRAM market while leading players such as Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron focus on high-value memory like HBM in line with market demand. According to market research firm TrendForce, the server share of DRAM production capacity is 44% and the HBM share is 9%, with the combined share of the two fields projected to expand to 70% in the future. Put the other way around, this also means that CXMT, centered on commodity DRAM, still has a long way to go before it can stand shoulder to shoulder with global leaders in high-value memory.
Its low proportion of overseas revenue is also cited as a limitation. Of CXMT's total revenue, mainland China accounts for 42.79% and Hong Kong for 57.21%, while overseas accounts for just 2.79%. The major customers specified in the prospectus are also mostly Chinese firms, including Alibaba Cloud, ByteDance, Xiaomi, and Honor. The dependence of core business revenue on its top five customers also reached 74.12%, 67.30%, and 68.08% from 2023 to 2025, respectively.
The fact that the share of server DRAM revenue surged from 8.39% in 2024 to 26.51% last year can also be interpreted as the result of a spike in domestic demand driven by the Chinese government's guidelines for localizing AI infrastructure, rather than recognition of its competitiveness in the global market. In fact, at Huaqiangbei in Shenzhen, China's largest electronics market, demand for CXMT's server memory modules is known to have grown significantly this year in line with government guidelines.
Yicai pointed out, "To grow into a more influential manufacturer, CXMT must not only expand production capacity but also increase its technological accumulation, broaden its downstream customer base, and enter wider international markets," adding, "The competition now depends not on cost advantages or domestic-substitute rivalry, but on continuous innovation, supply chain integration, and securing global competitiveness."
