The number of births in South Korea rose 15.6% from a year earlier, the fastest increase on record for any June. A rebound in marriages combined with a growing population of women in their 30s is accelerating the recovery in births.
According to the June 2026 population trends report released by Statistics Korea on the 26th, the number of births reached 23,111, up 15.6% from the same month a year earlier. It was the highest June figure in seven years, since 2019, and the growth rate was the highest since the statistics began. The increase of 3,115 was the second-largest on record, after a gain of 3,666 in 1992. Births have risen for 24 consecutive months since July 2024, and the total fertility rate stood at 0.88.
The rebound also widened on a cumulative basis. Second-quarter births totaled 70,791, the most since 2019, marking a ninth straight quarter of increase since the second quarter of 2024. In the first half, 145,804 babies were born, up 15.4% from a year earlier. Both the size of the increase and the growth rate were the largest since the statistics began.
The first driver behind the rebound was a rise in marriages. There were 21,075 marriages in June, up 14.0%. The growth rate was the highest ever for June, and the number of marriages was the most since 2017. A recovery in marriages that began in 2023 appears to be feeding through into childbirth with a time lag.
The link between rising marriages and births was also clear in last year's finalized data. Births last year rose 6.7% to 254,300, and the total fertility rate climbed to 0.80. About 80% of the total increase in births was accounted for by first children. First births rose 8.6%, and more than half — 53.6% — were born within two years of marriage. In effect, the marriage recovery that began in 2023 fed through into first births with a time lag.
A larger population of women in their 30s, the core childbearing age group, also supported the rebound. Last year, the birth rate among women in their late 20s rose for the first time since 2007, but the increase in births was centered on those in their 30s. Birth rates among women in their late 30s and early 40s were the highest since the statistics began, and in the second quarter of this year, birth rates among women in their early and late 30s reached their highest levels since 2019 and 2015, respectively.
An official at Statistics Korea explained, "Marriages have increased since 2023, and the population in their early 30s, who are at the core age for marriage and childbirth, has also recovered, so we expect the rise in births to continue." According to the agency's analysis, because second-half births in 2024 and last year were similar to or higher than in the first half, the current trend may continue this year as well.
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Still, it remains uncertain whether the recent rebound will translate into a long-term rise in births. Once the people in their 30s who are now underpinning the increase move beyond childbearing age, they will be replaced by those in their 20s, a smaller population. Even if attitudes toward marriage and childbirth improve, the core childbearing age group is itself shrinking.
An official at Statistics Korea said, "The fact that the population in their 20s is far smaller than that in their 30s can be confirmed from the numbers already available," adding, "The long-term trend can be judged more accurately through the projected population estimates based on 2025 data, to be released this December." Asked whether the recent increase could be seen as a direct effect of government policy, the official drew a line, saying, "It is difficult to directly link policy effects to the rise in births."
Although births rose sharply, the natural decline in the population continued. There were 27,794 deaths in June, 4,683 more than the number of births. In the second quarter, deaths also exceeded births by about 16,000. While the rebound in births is narrowing the natural decline, it is not yet enough to reverse the overall population decline.
