This week brings data on births last year and recent trends in household income and spending. In the U.S., Nvidia's earnings and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index loom as key variables for financial markets.
Statistics Korea will release the final "2025 Birth Statistics," a comprehensive tally of births last year, on the 26th. The total fertility rate fell below 1.0 starting in 2018 (0.98) and hit a record low of 0.72 in 2023 before rebounding to 0.75 in 2024. Preliminary figures for 2025, released earlier this year, showed a rate of 0.80. Attention centers on whether the final figure will show a further rebound. The "June Population Trends," released the same day, will show monthly changes in the number of births.
On the 27th, results of the "Second-Quarter Household Trends Survey" will be released. The statistics show the average monthly income and spending of South Korean households. In the first quarter, average monthly income per household was 5.481 million won, up 2.4% from a year earlier, while consumption spending rose 5.3% to 3.105 million won.
The Bank of Korea's base rate decision the same day is another major event of the week. Attention is focused on whether the central bank, which raised the rate by 0.25 percentage point last month for the first time in three and a half years, will hike for a second straight month. The BOK will also release revised economic projections that day. In its May outlook, it sharply raised its forecast for South Korea's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year to 2.6% from 2%, and the prevailing view is that it will lift the figure further this time to the low 3% range.
Overseas, the earnings of Nvidia, the leading artificial intelligence (AI) stock, are the focus. The company will report second-quarter results for fiscal 2027 on the 26th, local time. First-quarter revenue was $81.62 billion, beating market expectations by $2.5 billion, and Wall Street forecasts a record high of $95 billion in the second quarter.
The PCE price index, which the U.S. Federal Reserve uses as its key inflation gauge, also warrants attention. The July core PCE reading, which excludes volatile items such as energy, is forecast to rise 3.3% from a year earlier. If it matches market expectations, the likelihood of a U.S. rate hike next month is expected to fall further.
In addition, the Fed will hold its Jackson Hole policy symposium in Wyoming. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver the keynote address. The world is watching for any hints about the path of U.S. interest rates.
