▲ AI PRISM* Personalized Economic Briefing
* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an AI-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six tailored news items for each reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ HBM Leadership Reshuffle: Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) has reached an 80% yield on HBM4, its sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory, just six months into mass production, opening a new phase in an HBM market long dominated by SK hynix (000660.KS). The result came from a turnkey system in which the memory, foundry and advanced packaging units collaborated from the design stage, and the axis of competition is shifting rapidly from technology development to production capacity.
■ Shift in Foreign Flows: Foreign investors have sold nearly 6 trillion won of domestic semiconductor-related stocks this month, signaling caution over the durability of the artificial intelligence and chip cycle. Some of the recovered funds flowed into biotech, defense and automotive stocks, pushing foreign ownership of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix down to near their lows for the year.
■ Rate and Volatility Burden: Even as the Bank of Korea held its base rate for more than a year, household loan rates jumped about 0.5 percentage points, adding to the burden on borrowers. With sharp swings repeating in the stock market, money has also been flowing into covered-call exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which pay distributions from options premiums.
[News of Interest to Financial Product Investors]
1. Power of the 'Memory + Foundry + Packaging' One-Team Approach; HBM4E Mass Production Moved Up
- Key Summary: As Samsung Electronics stabilizes its HBM4 yield, analysts say the battle for HBM leadership with SK hynix has shifted to a competition over production capacity. Kim Jae-jun, executive vice president of Samsung Electronics' memory business, said on the second-quarter earnings conference call that third-quarter HBM4 revenue would more than triple from the previous quarter and that HBM4 would account for more than 60% of total HBM revenue in the second half. UBS, a global investment bank, projected that SK hynix would hold the No. 1 position this year with 48% of shipments on a bit basis, but that next year Samsung Electronics would edge ahead at 41% against SK hynix's 39%. Separately, Samsung Electronics is reported to have raised the reliability test yield on its seventh-generation HBM4E to more than 70%, moving up the timing of mass production.
2. Samsung Reaches 'Golden Yield' on HBM4, Set to Expand Supply
- Key Summary: Samsung Electronics' HBM4 yield recently reached 80%, making it possible to expand output. The yield, which had been below 60% in the early stage of mass production this February, stabilized dramatically over six months; the industry regards an 80% yield as a "golden yield" that minimizes defect rates to secure profitability. This is also expected to give momentum to production of Nvidia's "Vera Rubin" AI accelerator. Samsung Electronics is reported to have set a goal of raising its HBM share by the end of the year to around 38%, the level of its DRAM market share.
3. Foreigners Wary of AI Dump 6 Trillion Won in Chips in a Week
- Key Summary: According to the Korea Exchange, the top five stocks by foreign net selling from the 3rd to the 7th of this month were SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS), Daeduck Electronics (353200.KS) and Hanmi Semiconductor (042700.KS), with net selling reaching 5.9183 trillion won. By contrast, Samsung C&T (028260.KS), Celltrion (068270.KS), Samsung Biologics (207940.KS), Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS) and Kia (000270.KS) ranked among the top net purchases. As of the 7th of this month, foreign ownership of SK hynix stood at 50.84%, having managed only a slight rebound after falling to 49.77% last month, while Samsung Electronics stood at 46.63%, down 5.77 percentage points from its high for the year at the start of the year (52.40%). However, Kim Hak-kyun, head of the research center at Shinyoung Securities (001720.KS), assessed that a reversal in flows could be expected as the won's strength has eased exchange-rate pressure.
[Reference News for Financial Product Investors]
4. More Than Half of Stocks Rise Even on Down Days; KOSPI Builds Strength
- Key Summary: In the first week of August, the KOSPI recorded an average advancing-stock ratio of 53.3% even on days the index fell, far above this year's down-day average of 30.9%. Analysts say the "index illusion" of the first half — when declining stocks outnumbered advancers even as the index rose — has lifted, with warmth spreading to neglected stocks. The absolute value of the KOSPI's average daily change also narrowed to 3.14% in August from 3.57% in June and 4.89% in July, and average daily turnover fell to 26.1920 trillion won in August from 50.3471 trillion won in June and 36.8754 trillion won in July. In the securities industry, this is read as a "healthy rotation" phase in which funds are moving into previously neglected sectors such as power equipment, secondary batteries, financials and biotech.
5. Amid Global Tightening and Loan Rules, Household Loan Rates Rise Another 0.5 Points in a Year
- Key Summary: After the Bank of Korea cut its base rate to 2.5% a year from 2.75% last May, it held the rate through July of this year, yet lending rates at commercial banks climbed instead. On a new-lending basis, the average mortgage rate rose to 4.36% from 3.87% and the general unsecured loan rate to 5.72% from 5.21%, each up about 0.5 percentage points. By contrast, the large-corporate loan rate rose just 0.02 percentage points, to 4.17% from 4.15%, clearly showing the impact of household loan rules. As of the 6th, the household loan balance at the five major banks stood at 650.3766 trillion won, up 5.4005 trillion won from the end of last year, exceeding this year's growth target of 4.33 trillion won by more than 1 trillion won.
6. Amid Extreme Volatility, More Investors Take Cover in Covered Calls
- Key Summary: As of the 7th of this month, the total net assets of domestically listed covered-call ETFs stood at 25.9853 trillion won, up 70% from 15.0373 trillion won at the end of last year. With 2.5279 trillion won flowing into "KODEX 200 Target Weekly Covered Call" and 2.0090 trillion won into "TIGER Dividend Covered Call Active" this year, the underlying assets have diversified, ranging from Korea's benchmark indexes to U.S. dividend and technology stocks. Covered-call ETFs hold stocks or a stock index while selling call options, paying regular distributions from the premiums received, and are relatively advantageous in a range-bound market. However, they are not principal-guaranteed products, so total returns can turn negative if the price of the underlying assets falls sharply.
▶ Go to article: Cucumber Prices Also Surge 55%; Concern August Inflation May Climb Into 3% Range
▶ Go to article: SK hynix Wage-and-Collective Bargaining Stalls Over 'Treasury Shares for Bonuses'; Concern Over Impact on HBM4 Production
▶ Go to article: Demand-Deposit Share at Five Major Banks Breaks Below 30%
