Shares of Hanmi Pharmaceutical (128940.KS) have already priced in excessive concerns, according to an analysis.
Han Seung-yeon, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said in a report on the 29th that "concerns arising from the weakness in the biotech sector in the second quarter this year and intensifying competition in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) drugs have caused Hanmi Pharmaceutical's stock to undergo a significant correction." However, she pointed out that "the new value of 'soneprogglutide,' which was licensed out to Eli Lilly, and expectations for the licensing of a global obesity drug remain intact." This means the current stock price of Hanmi Pharmaceutical stems from deteriorating investment sentiment rather than any fundamental impairment of the company's value.
Still, she lowered the target price, taking into account factors such as operating value. "Reflecting the structural drug price cuts at Beijing Hanmi under China's volume-based procurement (VBP) system, we are lowering the 2027 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) from the previous 393 billion won to 357.3 billion won," Han said. "We are also adjusting the target multiple to reflect the stock price declines of domestic pharmaceutical companies."
The value of the new drugs held by Hanmi Pharmaceutical was also lowered. "Hanmi Pharmaceutical is expected to release Phase 2 data for two MASH drugs in the second half of this year, but considering the recently heightened competition, we are conservatively lowering the probability of Phase 2 success from 55% to 20%," Han said. She estimated that "if the dual-agonist-based MASH drug succeeds in entering Phase 3 clinical trials, its value will rise from the current 400 billion won to 1.8 trillion won."
