The U.S. interest rate decision is scheduled for this week. With markets treating a rate hold as a foregone conclusion, attention is focused on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will signal the future direction of monetary policy.
The Fed will hold its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the 28th and 29th to decide whether to adjust the benchmark rate from its current 3.5-3.75% level. Although Middle East instability has resurfaced recently, major price indicators, including the June consumer price index, have moderated for now. This raises the likelihood that the Fed will hold rates this time and monitor future oil price and inflation trends.
The U.S. Commerce Department will announce the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate on the 30th. The first-quarter final figure was tallied at 2.1% (annualized rate, quarter-on-quarter), and markets expect the economy posted 2.3% growth in the second quarter. With the yen recently falling to its lowest level on record, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce its benchmark rate on the 31st. The BOJ, which last month raised its rate to 1%, the highest level in 31 years, is expected to hold this time before proceeding with an additional hike in the fourth quarter of this year.
Domestically, attention is focused on SK hynix's (000660.KS) second-quarter earnings announcement on the 29th. Securities analysts forecast that operating profit will exceed 64 trillion won on expanded supply of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) led by Big Tech. This figure far surpasses the previous record high of the first quarter of this year (about 37 trillion won). Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), which has already disclosed preliminary second-quarter operating profit of 89 trillion won, will announce its final earnings figures and detailed results by business division on the 30th.
The National Data Agency will release the results of the "2025 Population and Housing Census (Complete Enumeration)." The survey results are expected to provide a multidimensional view of the population and housing conditions of Korean society.
In addition, on the 27th, another public forum on property policy will be held, chaired by Prime Minister Han Sung-sook. On the 31st, the "June Industrial Activity Trends" will be released. In the preceding month of May, semiconductor production fell 10%, showing a double-digit decline. Attention is focused on whether the production decline continued in June or whether it rebounded.
