▲AI PRISM* Customized Economic Briefing
*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an "artificial intelligence (AI)-based customized news recommendation and summary service" developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items by reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ Exports Hit Record High: Exports from the 1st to the 10th of this month reached $29.8 billion, marking a record high for the same period. Chip exports surged nearly threefold from a year earlier, accounting for 37.6% of total exports, as the semiconductor-led export boom continues.
■ U.S.-Iran Clashes Expand: The United States attacked Iran four times in one week, targeting more than 310 sites in total, escalating military tension between the two sides. Oil prices jumped more than 4%, and ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to an average of six vessels per day, sounding alarm bells for the international energy supply chain.
■ Super Budget Prepared: Next year's budget is set to be prepared at a scale of '800 trillion won+α,' up more than 10% from this year's main budget, marking a record high. Additional tax revenue will be concentrated on strategic sectors such as AI and semiconductors through a future response fund.
[News of Interest to Corporate CEOs]
1. Early July Exports Hit $29.8 Billion, Setting Another Record
- Key Summary: Exports from the 1st to the 10th of this month reached $29.8 billion, surging 53.9% from a year earlier and setting a record high for the 1st-to-10th period. Chip exports led the increase, jumping 193% year-on-year to $11.2 billion, with their share of total exports rising 17.8 percentage points from a year earlier to 37.6%. Passenger car exports recorded $1.9 billion, the largest in 32 months, while ships rose 75.1% and computer peripherals rose 208.1%, with strong exports continuing across major items. Meanwhile, exports also increased sharply in major markets including China (88.7%), Vietnam (92.8%), and Hong Kong (196.8%), and as the increase in exports far outpaced imports, the trade balance recorded a surplus of $6.4 billion.
2. "We Don't Believe the Mistaken-Fire Claim": U.S. Strikes Iran Four Times in a Week
- Key Summary: The U.S. Central Command launched airstrikes against Iranian military targets for the fourth time this month, with a total of 310 attacks carried out over the past week. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked with drones a U.S. surface-to-surface missile launcher, the 'HIMARS' (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), deployed in Kuwait, and also targeted U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and a radar system in Oman. Mike Waltz, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, fully rebutted Iran's mistaken-fire claim, saying it was "not true," while Brent crude for September delivery on Europe's ICE Futures exchange rose more than 4% from the previous session to around $79 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for August delivery also rose more than 4% to around $74 per barrel. Both sides are leaving open the possibility of negotiations, but amid deepening skepticism, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also fallen to an average of six vessels per day.
3. Next Year's 'Super Budget' of 800 Trillion Won+α to Be Unleashed
- Key Summary: President Lee Jae-myung said at the National Fiscal Strategy Meeting held at the Blue House on the 13th that he would prepare a record-high budget with total spending next year expanded by more than 10% from this year's main budget, exceeding 800 trillion won for the first time. The Ministry of Planning and Budget forecast that national tax revenue in 2027 would reach more than 500 trillion won, far exceeding the initial forecast of 412 trillion won, and decided to concentrate investment from the newly established future response fund in four major areas including the future, youth, regions, and education. President Lee stressed that "this additional tax revenue is a precious resource to be used during the golden time when global artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy is being determined," while Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung-kwan announced support measures for the 'three mega projects' including semiconductors, AI, and robots. Also disclosed were a plan to expand nationwide the time-of-use residential electricity rate system currently being piloted on Jeju Island, and a policy to temporarily ease the income calculation standards for newlywed housing loans.
[News for Corporate CEOs' Reference]
4. SK hynix ADR Catalyst Fades as Earnings Outlook Cut, Igniting 'Chip Peak' Debate
- Key Summary: As the major event of SK hynix's (000660) U.S. American Depositary Receipt (ADR) listing wrapped up, the catalyst faded, and Korea Investment & Securities presented SK hynix's second-quarter operating profit at 60.4 trillion won, about 8% lower than the market consensus (about 65 trillion won), intensifying selling centered on chip stocks. The combined market capitalization of the top four KOSPI stocks by market cap — Samsung Electronics (005930), SK hynix, SK Square (402340), and Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150) — evaporated by a total of 1,522.2983 trillion won over the three weeks since the 25th of last month, when they were near record highs, and KOSPI plunged 8.95%, marking a distinctive weakness compared with Asian markets such as the Nikkei (-1.92%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, and Taiwan's Taiex. Experts analyzed this decline as the result of skepticism over the sustainability of AI investment, profit-taking following a short-term surge, and the fading of catalysts after the ADR listing, with interpretations that the impact of supply-and-demand shocks and valuation pullbacks was greater than any damage to fundamentals. Whether the expansion of AI investment continues at the earnings announcements of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix late this month and at hyperscaler conference calls starting with Alphabet on the 22nd, followed by Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, is cited as a key variable for the stock trend going forward.
5. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180) in Battle with China's Ningbo Over Casablanca Shipyard
- Key Summary: HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is entering final-stage negotiations to secure exclusive operating rights for the Casablanca shipyard with Morocco's National Ports Agency (ANP), and the investment for this project, which guarantees exclusive operating rights for the next 30 years, amounts to at least $300 million (about 450 billion won). HD Hyundai Heavy Industries formed a consortium with Moroccan engineering firm Somagec and Turkish shipbuilder Kuzey Star to lay the foundation for a local partnership, and is cited as the most likely candidate for now, with a delegation led by Nizar Baraka, Morocco's Minister of Equipment and Water, directly visiting the Ulsan shipyard. Rival China's Ningbo Xinle is countering by proposing a comprehensive hub plan capable of full-cycle operations from newbuilding to maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) and ship dismantling and recycling, while Italy's San Giorgio del Porto is touting its European port infrastructure network. The final result over the strategic location of Casablanca, a maritime route hub linking Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, is scheduled to be announced in early August.
6. [Exclusive] Samsung Bioepis Secures High-Dose SC Technology Monopolized by Big Pharma
- Key Summary: Samsung Bioepis has completed internal testing and successfully secured recombinant human hyaluronidase (PH20)-based subcutaneous (SC) formulation change technology. PH20-based SC technology is a core technology needed to convert high-dose antibody drugs from intravenous (IV) to subcutaneous injection, an area that has been effectively monopolized by the U.S.'s Halozyme and Korea's Alteogen. In addition to using its own hyaluronidase, different from those companies', Samsung Bioepis independently developed its culture and purification processes to minimize intellectual property risks, and the industry expects it to apply the technology to biosimilars (generic drugs) of the world's top-selling anticancer drug, U.S. Merck's (MSD) 'Keytruda,' and Japan's Daiichi Sankyo's 'Enhertu,' a representative antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) product. As a result, Samsung Bioepis is positioned to establish independent competitiveness in the high-dose biosimilar market, where big pharma is raising patent barriers through SC formulation conversion.
