Iran Strikes Oil Tanker, Putting Global Crude Supply Chain on High Alert

*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an "AI-based personalized news recommendation and summary service" developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items by reader type.

1. Gulf States Also Hit in Retaliatory Strikes... Divergent Views on Hormuz Shake Ceasefire Deal

- Key Summary: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked the Singapore-flagged container ship "Ever Lovely" with drones on the 25th, then struck the Panama-flagged oil tanker "Kiku," which was passing through the Strait of Hormuz carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil, on the 27th. U.S. forces conducted airstrikes on Iran's missile and drone storage bases and coastal radar bases for two consecutive days, and Iran carried out retaliatory attacks on U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Article 5 of the ceasefire MOU has been pointed to as the root cause of the conflict. Analysts say the ambiguous wording that Iran and Oman would jointly establish a "future management plan" for the Strait of Hormuz heightened tensions, as it was interpreted as effectively granting Iran control of the strait. Iran's Assembly of Experts has demanded that "the strait must be closed if Israel does not halt its operations in Lebanon," intensifying concerns over global crude oil supply and demand.

2. Foreign Stock Selling, Strong Dollar... Q2 Average Exchange Rate to Exceed 1,500 Won

- Key Summary: The average won-dollar exchange rate in the second quarter of this year was recorded at 1,500.1 won, expected to exceed 1,500 won for the first time in 28 years and three months since the first quarter of 1998 (1,596.8 won). Foreign investors have sold off 136.7 trillion won in the securities market since the start of the year, and in May alone they net-sold 49 trillion won, the largest monthly figure on record. The dollar's strength, driven by expectations of a U.S. base rate hike, is also a pressure factor, with the DXY rising to 101.7 on the 24th, its highest level in one year and one month. The Bank of Korea, in its recent financial stability report, said it is "difficult to determine when foreign investors' rebalancing (asset readjustment) will conclude," suggesting that a decline in the exchange rate will not be easy in the short term.

3. Chey Tae-won Heads to SK hynix Nasdaq Debut... Aiming for Global Top 10 Market Cap

- Key Summary: SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won is set to attend the SK hynix ADR Nasdaq listing ceremony in New York on the 10th of next month, where he will personally outline the company's AI memory competitiveness and mid- to long-term growth strategy to global investors. SK hynix's market capitalization, which stood at 200 trillion won in June last year, surpassed 2,000 trillion won for the first time on the 19th of this month, a tenfold surge in one year. According to market research firm IDC, SK hynix recorded a 56.4% share of the HBM (high-bandwidth memory) market in the first quarter of this year, far ahead of second-place Micron (23.1%) and third-place Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) (20.5%). The financial investment industry analyzes that if the ADR listing expands global capital inflows, the current market capitalization of around 1,905 trillion won could settle in the 2,000 trillion won range and even enter the global top 10 by market cap.

4. Apple Pursues Chinese Memory Procurement... Threat to Samsung-SK Dominance?

- Key Summary: Apple is lobbying the White House and the U.S. Department of Commerce to obtain approval to purchase memory chips from CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies), a Chinese DRAM maker included on the U.S. Department of Defense's "Chinese Military Companies (1260H)" list, the Financial Times (FT) reported on the 27th. The backdrop to Apple's move is the surge in memory prices. The price of LPDDR5X 12GB for smartphones soared from $77.1 in the first quarter of this year to $145.9 in the second quarter, increasing cost burdens. Observers say that if CXMT is incorporated into Apple's supply chain, Apple's price negotiating power against the three global memory makers — Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron — would increase. However, the prevailing outlook is that its feasibility is uncertain due to strong congressional pushback, with John Moolenaar, the Republican chairman of the U.S. House Select Committee on China, criticizing that "Apple cooperating with a Chinese military company is a serious mistake."

5. Second Supplementary Budget Grows More Likely... "Defend Against Polarization but Invest in the Future"

- Key Summary: As President Lee Jae-myung mentioned on the 28th that "if GPU (graphics processing unit) purchases are needed, the budget must be supplemented," the possibility of a second supplementary budget is rising. Fiscal conditions are assessed as sufficient. National tax revenue collected through April this year was 164.1 trillion won, an increase of 21.9 trillion won (15.4%) from the same period last year, and if the semiconductor boom continues, annual national tax revenue is expected to reach 431.5 trillion won, exceeding the existing estimate of 415.4 trillion won by 16.1 trillion won. The second supplementary budget is expected to be allocated across three tracks: fiscal support to resolve K-shaped polarization, investment in future industries such as semiconductors and AI, and government bond repayment. Experts are calling for "defending the bottom of the K-shaped polarization is inevitable, but more funds should be spent on future growth to prepare for the coming downturn in the semiconductor cycle."

6. TSMC's Secret to a 3.5% Turnover Rate Is RSUs... "Bold Benefits Must Be Given to Regional Talent"

- Key Summary: RSUs (restricted stock units) are a compensation system that shares future increases in corporate value with employees, cited as a key tool that lowered Nvidia's turnover rate to 2.7% and TSMC's to 3.5%, half that of Samsung Electronics (10.1%). According to Stanford University's "AI Index 2026," Korea is classified as a talent-outflow country with a net outflow of 0.35 people per 10,000 in the AI field, while the Korea Development Institute (KDI) pointed out that a structure requiring taxes to be paid at the point of receiving stock compensation without any cash inflow is the key barrier preventing the spread of RSUs. Germany defers tax payments on stock compensation until the time of stock sale, and France substantially lowers the tax burden through a startup-only stock incentive system (BSPCE), whereas Korea has no tax benefits for RSUs comparable to stock options. Within the industry, voices are growing that "the transfer of advanced industries is completed not by power and water but by talent," calling for the introduction of RSU tax deferral benefits at least for startups and venture companies.