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The odds of success in an increasingly cutthroat K-pop market are as slim as "a camel passing through the eye of a needle," according to new research. Only about half of the idol groups that debuted in South Korea sustained their careers for more than three years, while just 1.6% achieved "million-seller" status. Notably, all eight groups that surpassed 10 million in cumulative album sales belong to major agencies.
Kim Jung-sup, a professor in the Department of Cultural Industry and Arts at Sungshin Women's University and chairman of the Global K-Culture Economy Forum, released the findings on the 4th based on a comprehensive survey of 1,182 idol groups active over the 30 years from H.O.T.'s debut in 1996 through 2025.
"This is the first study to empirically analyze the K-pop idol industry by combining statistical analysis, cohort analysis and in-depth expert interviews on 1,182 groups that debuted from H.O.T. in 1996 through the end of 2025," Kim said. "It is significant in that it confirms, through objective data, the competitive structure and success mechanisms of a K-pop industry that has achieved global results."
According to the research, an average of about 39.4 new groups debuted each year over the past 30 years, including 19.8 boy groups and 19.6 girl groups annually. But the market displayed a typical high-risk, high-competition structure, with a high early dropout rate and success concentrated among a few.
The average career span of all idol groups was 4.12 years, or 58.9% of the standard exclusive contract period of seven years. The share of groups surviving more than three years after debut was 55.03%, meaning about 45% ended their activities or effectively disappeared from the market within three years. "The idol industry has a structure in which performance in the first one to three years after debut determines whether investment continues," Kim said. "As a result, a considerable number of groups wrap up their activities or head toward disbandment without completing their first exclusive contract period."
Still, Kim said there is no need to view the idol industry too pessimistically. The three-year survival rate of idol groups was higher than the three-year survival rate of ordinary small and medium-sized startups (41.5%), though lower than that of government-supported startups (68.1%). "The idol industry is inherently a high-risk market, but existing perceptions are, in some respects, excessively negative compared with reality," Kim said. "For the development of the music industry, investment risks need to be assessed more objectively."
Differences by gender were also clear. The average career span of boy groups was 5.11 years, 1.98 years longer than that of girl groups (3.13 years). The study attributed this to the fact that, unlike boy groups, which secure a highly loyal consumption structure centered on female fandoms, girl groups have a revenue structure heavily dependent on mainstream popularity, events and streaming income.
Cases of success were even more limited. Of the 1,182 groups that debuted over 30 years, only 42, or 3.55%, recorded sales of more than 300,000 copies for a single album—a benchmark that can be viewed as reaching the break-even point. Nineteen groups, or 1.61%, were "million-sellers" that sold more than 1 million copies of a single album.
Furthermore, only eight groups (0.68%) surpassed 10 million in cumulative album sales on the back of global fandoms: BTS, Seventeen, Stray Kids, EXO, Twice, NCT, Tomorrow X Together (TXT) and Enhypen. All were produced by major agencies such as Hybe, SM Entertainment and JYP Entertainment.
"BTS's success was not a one-off case; subsequent global groups have emerged one after another, forming a 'post-BTS era,'" Kim said. He recommended building a long-term development system, creating a structure that allows re-challenges after failure, providing shared infrastructure support for small and mid-sized agencies, curbing indiscriminate debuts through preliminary vetting, and pursuing a balanced growth strategy between global market expansion and a domestic foundation, all for the sustainable growth of the K-pop industry. "Now is the time to prepare for K-pop's next 30 years," Kim said. "We must pool our capabilities to build a sustainable ecosystem that can establish itself as a mainstream global cultural industry, beyond a single success model centered on BTS."
The study was published in Volume 20, Issue 4 (released July 30) of the Journal of the Korea Entertainment Industry Association under the title "The Survival and Hit Structure of the K-pop Idol Music Industry: A Comprehensive Analysis of 1,182 Groups That Debuted Over the 30 Years (1996–2025) Since H.O.T."
