President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating is continuing to slide, and the erosion is most pronounced in Seoul. His recent approval rating in the capital has come in lower than in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, long regarded as hostile terrain for the liberal bloc, and the size of the decline has also been larger in Seoul. With his rating dropping sharply in a region seen as a barometer of national sentiment, analysts say support for Lee is slipping quickly, particularly among moderates.
The Seoul Economic Daily analyzed recently released opinion polls on the 12th and found that positive assessments of Lee in Seoul trailed those in Daegu-North Gyeongsang while negative assessments ran higher. Positive assessments in Seoul fell to the 20% range, while Daegu-North Gyeongsang held in the 30% range in one survey. The recent rate of decline was also greater in Seoul than in Daegu-North Gyeongsang.
Analysts attribute the shift to worsening evaluations among moderate voters of economic policies tied directly to daily life, including housing, compounded by the second round of cabinet appointments.
Seoul Rating Lower Than in Conservative Daegu-North Gyeongsang
In a first-week-of-September survey conducted by pollster Realmeter for Energy Economy Newspaper from the 31st of last month through the 4th of this month among 2,510 eligible voters aged 18 and over nationwide, 29% of respondents in Seoul rated Lee's handling of state affairs positively, while 67.9% rated it negatively. That positive figure was below the nationwide reading of 37.4%. In Daegu-North Gyeongsang, 29.4% said he was doing a good job and 67.9% said he was not. The positive rating in Seoul was 0.4 percentage points lower than in Daegu-North Gyeongsang, while the negative rating was identical.
The gap widened further in a second-week-of-September survey by Gallup Korea, conducted from the 8th to the 10th among 1,000 eligible voters aged 18 and over nationwide. Positive assessments in Seoul stood at 29% and negative assessments at 60%. In Daegu-North Gyeongsang, positive assessments came in at 34% and negative at 54%. The positive rating in Seoul was 5 percentage points lower than in Daegu-North Gyeongsang, while the negative rating was 6 percentage points higher.
The negative readings recorded in Seoul are high even compared with Daegu-North Gyeongsang, a traditional weak spot for the Democratic Party. That can be read as a sign that dissatisfaction with the administration is spreading among moderates and in the greater Seoul area, rather than simply hardening in conservative-leaning regions.
Steeper Slide in Seoul, With a 9-Point Drop in a Week in Gallup Survey
The deterioration in Seoul also stood out in the pace of the recent decline. In Realmeter's polling, positive assessments in Seoul stood at 35% in the fourth week of August but fell to 29% in the first week of September, a drop of 6 percentage points. Negative assessments rose to 67.9% from 62.3%, up 5.6 percentage points.
In Daegu-North Gyeongsang, by contrast, positive assessments fell to 29.4% from 32.3% over the same period, down 2.9 percentage points. Negative assessments rose to 67.9% from 65.4%, up 2.5 percentage points. Both readings moved more sharply in Seoul.
The gap was even clearer in the Gallup Korea polling. Positive assessments in Seoul stood at 38% in the first week of September but plunged to 29% in the second week, a fall of 9 percentage points in a single week. Negative assessments rose to 60% from 57%, up 3 percentage points. In Daegu-North Gyeongsang, positive assessments held at 34% and negative assessments at 54% over the same period, with no change in either reading.
Second Cabinet Reshuffle Rattles Seoul Sentiment as Moderates Drift Away
The second round of cabinet appointments under the Lee administration may have weighed on sentiment in Seoul. In the second-week-of-September Gallup Korea survey, 22% of respondents nationwide considered Kim Seung-won suitable as justice minister, while 43% considered him unsuitable. In Seoul, 15% said he was suitable and 51% said he was not, with the negative reading 8 percentage points above the nationwide figure.
Assessments of Yong Hye-in, the nominee for minister of gender equality and family, were also more negative in Seoul. Nationwide, 13% said she was suitable and 61% said she was not, while in Seoul the readings were 14% suitable and 67% unsuitable. The positive figure was 1 percentage point above the national reading, but the negative figure was 6 percentage points higher.
With assessments of both policy and personnel worsening among moderates, there is concern that the decline in Lee's approval rating in Seoul may not prove temporary. If moderate voters, who will determine the success of his administration, begin to drift away starting in Seoul, a rebound in his approval rating may be difficult, analysts said.
The Realmeter surveys were conducted entirely by automated response system on mobile phones. The fourth-week-of-August survey had a response rate of 3.9% and a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The first-week-of-September survey had a response rate of 4.2% and a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
The Gallup Korea surveys were conducted through computer-assisted telephone interviews using randomly selected virtual mobile numbers provided by the country's three wireless carriers. The first-week-of-September survey had a response rate of 10.9% and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The second-week-of-September survey had a response rate of 9.4% and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
