Chin Jung-kwon, a professor at Dongyang University, said the decline in President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating, which has fallen to the low-to-mid 30% range in various polls and marked its lowest level since he took office, has been unusually rapid.
"If this were the third or fourth year in office, that would be one thing, but the pace of the collapse is far too steep for just over a year into the term," Chin wrote on Facebook on the 13th. "Looking at polls from the same period, the numbers are similar to Yoon Suk Yeol's or even slightly lower."
Citing a recent post by Lee on X, Chin said the president appears to have "completely lost touch with reality." He added, "About six months before the martial law declaration, I wrote that Yoon Suk Yeol had left reality behind and confined himself to his own virtual world. I have a similarly ominous feeling now."
"Not long ago, with home prices soaring, he told people to prepare for a plunge in home prices. Now, with his approval rating hitting bottom, he talks about a 'structural majority,'" Chin said. "Either way, he seems to live in a different universe from ours." He added, "There are still almost four years left, and if the president's state of mind is in that condition, then setting aside whether one likes him or not, it is something to worry about seriously as a citizen."
On the conflict within the ruling bloc, Chin said, "Talk of reform or revolution is all pointless. There is one core issue." He diagnosed it as "whether it is the 'Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung' or 'Lee Jae-myung's Democratic Party' — that is the cause of the conflict among supporters."
Chin referred to a group known by the acronym "Mun-Jo-Teol-Rae-Yu" — former President Moon Jae-in, Rebuilding Korea Party leader Cho Kuk, broadcaster Kim Ou-joon, former Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae and writer Rhyu Si-min — and argued, "They believe the Democratic Party comes before the president, that they are the party's mainstream, and that it was they who made Lee Jae-myung president." By contrast, he said of the pro-Lee faction, "They believe the president comes before the party, and that because they support President Lee, they are the party's new owners."
He also argued that the conflict between the two sides stems from competing interests over the withdrawal of Lee's indictments and a constitutional amendment allowing a second presidential term. "The Mun-Jo-Teol-Rae-Yu group knows the Democratic Party would fall apart if Lee Jae-myung pushed these through," Chin said. "So while they support or tolerate Lee Jae-myung the individual serving as president, they will not stand by and watch him use that office for personal ends and squander the party itself, which is their capital." He interpreted Rhyu's earlier remark that "withdrawing the indictments is insane" as stemming from the same reasoning.
On the cabinet reshuffle, Chin identified Justice Minister nominee Kim Seung-won as the central figure. "In this reshuffle, everything else is filler and the core is Kim Seung-won," he said. "President Lee will appoint Kim Seung-won no matter what, and Kim Seung-won will push for the withdrawal of the indictments no matter what." He predicted, "Then the approval rating will fall even further and he will immediately become a lame duck."
Addressing Lee, Chin said, "Give up the withdrawal of the indictments, give up the re-election amendment, and stop the divisive politics." He added, "Put a cast on your fingers so you do not fall for the temptation of social media, stop the self-heroization and the showy micromanagement, and just work humbly, honestly and diligently — retiring while loved by the people is the right answer."
He continued, "Do not wreck the state system just to save yourself, and after leaving office, stand trial like any other citizen." He added, "Even if you are found guilty, the people will not keep a president they loved in prison for long. Take the straight path."
