The Democratic Party has decided to use a preferential voting system, rather than a runoff, to elect its leader at its August national convention. Under the method, party members and the electoral college select candidates in order of first, second and third preference, determining the winner through a single round of voting. As the new variable has emerged as a factor that could decide the outcome of a leadership contest expected to be a three-way race, each candidate's camp has begun calculating its advantages and disadvantages.
The Democratic Party's convention preparation committee held its third meeting Monday and voted to adopt the preferential voting system for determining the party leader. Rep. Lee Yeon-hee, a committee member, said, "After discussing preferential voting and a runoff, we decided on the preferential voting system," adding, "A majority expressed support for the preferential voting system."
Under the preferential voting system, voters do not choose just one candidate but mark their first, second and third preferences. Only first-preference votes are counted, and if a candidate wins a majority, that candidate is immediately confirmed as the winner. If no candidate secures a majority, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated, and votes that named that candidate as first preference are redistributed to the second-preference candidates. If no candidate still wins a majority, votes are redistributed in the same manner to determine the final winner. A distinctive feature is that the winner can be confirmed on the same day without a separate runoff vote.
Each candidate's camp has not publicly stated its position on the introduction of the preferential voting system, but internally they are weighing the gains and losses. This is because analysts say the advantages and disadvantages for each candidate could vary depending on the circumstances, given that the convention is likely to be effectively a three-way race among former leader Chung Chung-rae, former Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and Rep. Song Young-gil.
The first point of interest is whether a candidate will win a majority in the initial tally. Both inside and outside the party, analysts say the most favorable scenario would be for Chung, who has a thick base of hardline party members with voting rights and reform-minded supporters, to concentrate first-preference votes and secure a majority.
On the other hand, some forecast that the dynamics could shift if no candidate wins a majority in the first round. Because the method redistributes second-preference votes after the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated, the direction of support from Kim's and Song's backers could determine the final outcome. In this case, some observers say the preferential voting system could work against Chung if he fails to settle the race in the first round.
Meanwhile, the committee decided the same day to introduce a youth supreme council seat starting with this convention. However, details such as the selection method and age criteria will be finalized after further discussion Wednesday. The regional primary schedule will also be maintained as originally planned. Although some raised fairness concerns, the committee concluded that it would not make changes. Kim also recently said, "I have no position whatsoever on the rules, and I will follow whatever the party decides."
