As the United States retreats from its role as the "world's policeman" and demands that allies expand their defense burdens, analysts say this presents an opportunity for South Korea's defense industry to reap collateral benefits and grow rapidly. U.S. political news outlet Politico recently reported that President Donald Trump's reduction of America's security commitments to Europe has opened a path for South Korea to emerge as a major arms-trading nation on the global stage.
The outlet noted that when then-U.S. President Richard Nixon announced the so-called "Nixon Doctrine" in 1969 — the principle that allies should be responsible for their own security — South Korea, under then-President Park Chung-hee, invested heavily in its defense industry. As a result, South Korea has become the world's ninth-largest arms exporter and has established itself as one of the fastest-growing arms exporters in the world, it assessed.
The combined projected revenue this year for South Korea's four major defense companies — Hanwha Group, Hyundai Rotem, LIG Nex1, and Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) — is expected to reach $37 billion (56.83 trillion won), nearly quadrupling from 2021, the analysis showed. In particular, South Korea has risen to become the second-largest arms supplier to European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), behind the United States, the largest supplier, it noted.
Politico reported that member states have considerable discontent over Trump's actions, including the imposition of tariffs and harsh remarks directed at allies. At the same time, two large-scale wars — the war in Ukraine and the Iran war — have caused arms demand to surge. "All of this is creating fundamental uncertainty in the global arms market, and South Korea is ready to take advantage of it," the outlet reported.
Above all, since the war in Ukraine began, "South Korea has emerged as a reliable alternative supplier for anxious Eastern European governments," it said, noting that Poland became South Korea's largest customer after signing arms contracts worth $13.7 billion. The analysis also found that South Korean-made weapons have received even more positive performance assessments following the recent Iran war.
K-Defense, With Fast Technology Transfer and Delivery, Is the Middle East's Top Choice
The outlet cited fast delivery, price competitiveness, and an open attitude toward technology transfer and local production as strengths of South Korea's defense industry. It added that the relatively low political burden for importing nations purchasing South Korean weapons is another advantage. However, it forecast that the competitive environment for K-defense would gradually intensify as European countries pursue developing their own defense industries and Japan eases its arms export regulations.
With the war between the United States and Iran concluding, the Middle East rebuilding effort is seen as another boon for K-defense. The industry moving most busily behind the scenes is the defense sector. This is because demand for arms surged when Iran attacked neighboring countries during the war. While the United States and Europe face limits in production capacity, the Middle East has little choice but to give priority consideration to K-defense, which offers technology transfer and fast delivery.
The weapons system drawing the highest interest is the domestically produced air defense system. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) even mobilized its own transport aircraft to expedite delivery of additional units of the "Cheongung-II" interceptor missile, which was deployed in actual combat for the first time in this war and recorded a high interception rate. Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which have already introduced the system, as well as Qatar and Kuwait, are known to be actively pursuing the introduction of the Cheongung-II.
In addition, Saudi Arabia, which suffered the greatest damage from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is accelerating efforts to strengthen its naval forces. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean have entered Saudi Arabia's destroyer and submarine procurement projects. Hyundai Rotem's K2 tank export negotiations with Iraq, along with KAI's KF-21 export and next-generation fighter joint development being pursued with the UAE, are also poised to gain full momentum.
A defense industry official said, "I understand that during the war between the United States and Iran, neighboring countries discussed matters such as the possibility of rapid delivery and preliminary quote requests behind the scenes." The official added, "When the war concludes, various quote requests are highly likely to lead to actual contracts, which will serve as an opportunity for K-defense exports — sporadic since the large-scale supply to Poland — to gain rapid momentum."
