The sweeping victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt has come as similar political forces gain ground across major European countries. Ahead of a series of elections in Europe next year, hard-right parties are rapidly broadening their support by tapping public frustration over high prices, sluggish growth and immigration.
Hard-right political forces are on an unchecked upswing as major European countries head into elections next year, The New York Times reported on the 6th. The AfD's success may serve both as a harbinger of further hard-right wins in those votes and as a template for how such parties expand their base, according to the report. Their approach — linking high prices, high unemployment and immigration to the perceived incompetence of the political establishment, then offering nationals-first policies as the remedy — is resonating with voters.
France, which holds a presidential election in April next year, is drawing the most attention. According to the French daily Le Monde, a recent poll of 1,764 adults commissioned by broadcasters M6 and RTL showed Marine Le Pen, a lawmaker for the hard-right National Rally (RN), holding a commanding lead with 35% to 38% support across multiple-candidate scenarios. In runoff scenarios, she was also well ahead of former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe of the center-right and Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the far-left. Le Pen, who has sought the presidency for the past 14 years, is seen as closer to power than ever.
Philippe Marliere, a professor at University College London, said the anti-fascist front that has held since the end of World War II appears to be on the verge of collapse in both Germany and France.
In Spain, which faces a general election next year, the hard-right party Vox is also expanding. The center-right opposition People's Party (PP) currently leads in polls, but many observers expect it to fall short of an outright majority on its own, drawing attention to the possibility of a coalition with Vox. In Britain, Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has made a strong showing in local elections by campaigning on cutting immigration and criticizing the government's economic record.
Should hard-right parties take power or join coalition governments in France, Spain and elsewhere, the cohesion of the European Union could be significantly weakened, some analysts say. These parties are calling for tighter immigration controls and for reducing EU powers and financial contributions. Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at Eurasia Group, said that given France's size and standing, a far-right government in Paris would destabilize the EU more seriously than any past election result in another member state.
Still, many argue the rise of the hard right is not an unstoppable trend. Reform UK's momentum has been checked by a string of political funding allegations surrounding Farage and his inner circle. In April, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, one of Europe's most prominent far-right leaders, was pushed from power after 16 years, in what is seen as the result of growing public disaffection over corruption, economic mismanagement and needless friction with the EU.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, by contrast, is seen by some as having charted a new path for a hard-right party to hold power over the long term. Meloni, who leads the populist Brothers of Italy, a party with roots in neo-fascism, has softened her earlier hard-line stances on issues including support for Ukraine and cooperation with the EU since taking office. By shedding a radical image and emphasizing governing competence, her administration has become the longest-serving government in the history of the Italian Republic. She is viewed as well positioned to extend her rule in elections next summer.
The New York Times noted that after the far-right party's landslide in the former East Germany, the reverberations spread across Europe as far as Britain and France, adding that it is rare for the outcome of a single state election to be treated as so consequential for European democracy.
