U.S. President Donald Trump has begun mapping out a strategy that would enlist Gulf states hostile to Iran to shape the Middle East after the war with Tehran. The Trump administration is drawing up a postwar plan built around a joint regional effort to contain Iran and a wider normalization of ties between Israel and its neighbors even after the fighting ends. The aim is to keep the pressure on Iran after the war is over.
Axios reported on the 5th, citing two U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the matter, that Trump is preparing "something much bigger" for the Middle East once the war ends. Trump is weighing three broad options, according to the report.
The first would create a regional coalition among allies to check Iran, with the United States serving as guarantor. Rather than sustaining direct military involvement, Washington would underwrite the security of a cooperative framework in which Middle East allies take the lead in curbing Iranian influence.
The second is a plan to finish addressing the issues left by the Israel-Hamas war that began on Oct. 7, 2023. The Hamas assault inflicted the deadliest blow in Israel's history, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza deepened in its aftermath. Trump is reviewing ways to produce a security agreement between Israel and Syria while also implementing an Israel-Lebanon accord.
Trump is also considering how to expand the Abraham Accords and broker a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Abraham Accords are a diplomatic normalization policy, including the establishment of formal ties between Israel and Arab states, that was concluded during Trump's first term. It was signed first at the White House in September 2020 between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and Morocco and Sudan later joined.
In July, a day after the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a civil nuclear agreement, Trump pressed the point by saying approval of the deal depended "entirely" on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords. Riyadh, however, has held to its position that it will not normalize relations with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Trump's three initiatives remain at an early stage. Senior political appointees in the administration and working-level officials across several agencies are drafting them. Once completed, the plan is to serve as the strategy guiding the U.S. approach to the Middle East for the final two years of Trump's term. Sources said Trump has held two meetings with senior aides in recent weeks to discuss the initiatives and review various ideas.
"They are cooking, but it is not fully cooked yet," an insider said, adding that it would take several weeks before a concrete strategy is set. "The idea is to tie together the various issues in the region — that is, how to build a regional coalition after the war," the person said. "It is not yet clear whether all U.S. allies in the region will take part."
The variables are Israel's general election on Oct. 27 and the U.S. midterm elections in November. The administration hopes that the new Israeli government formed after the election will have both the will and the capacity to cooperate with the postwar strategy. Some U.S. officials, however, stressed that Trump would push ahead regardless of the election outcome, even if the vote leads to political deadlock.
