President Donald Trump is likely to pursue a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, according to a former top aide. The assessment is that Trump, weakened ahead of November's midterm elections by a prolonged war with Iran and surging prices, will use a visit to Pyongyang as a major political event to divert domestic attention abroad.
John Bolton, who served as White House national security adviser in Trump's first administration, made the remarks on the 1st at a video forum hosted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) in Washington, D.C. "Trump became the first American president to meet a North Korean leader in Singapore in 2018, and in the 2019 meeting at the Demilitarized Zone he became the first American president to set foot on North Korean soil, so there is only one step left. That is for Trump to visit Pyongyang," he said.
"Why does Trump want a summit? Because he needs the photograph. Because he wants to divert attention elsewhere," Bolton continued. He said that if Trump loses the November midterm elections, he would likely turn abroad rather than deal with Congress at home, as past U.S. presidents have done upon "entering the final two years of a second term."
Bolton also said, "Even in Singapore, Trump suggested to Kim Jong-un, 'Why don't you ride on Air Force One with me? And we stop by Pyongyang.'" He added, "The purpose of a Pyongyang visit is publicity. That really is all there is to it."
Recalling that Trump had referred to North Korea as a "nuclear power," Bolton said he was "very skeptical that there is anything at all we could get from him," referring to Kim. "North Korea will have calculated very carefully what it can extract from that summit," he said.
"North Korea May Test U.S. Resolve With Limited Provocation"
Bolton said Trump is pursuing a summit with North Korea impulsively and unilaterally. "That is why the risks that come with a Trump-Kim Jong-un summit are very high. Trump's recent shortening of the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise with South Korea is one example," he said. He recounted how, at the Singapore summit, Trump had responded off the cuff to Kim's objections to joint South Korea-U.S. drills by saying he would "just cancel them this year," startling the aides who were present.
Bolton argued that North Korea, having gained combat experience in the war in Ukraine, might carry out a limited military provocation against South Korea to test Washington's willingness to intervene. "If you think about the Northern Limit Line, you can imagine North Korea simply seizing a few islands beyond that line. They could create a kind of test case to see what Trump's resolve looks like. I am very worried about that scenario," he said.
Addressing President Lee Jae-myung, Bolton said, "It is not necessarily a bad thing that you are not actively pushing for a summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un," adding, "You have to be careful about what Trump says and what he does. The risks are large." He also suggested that showing a forward-leaning position on the issue of Koreans abducted by North Korea would be an advantageous card from Kim's standpoint, and said, "If anyone can open a new path on that issue, I think it would be President Lee." He added, "Even seen in the context of Korean politics, that aligns with President Lee's own political interests."
Bolton also advised that the United States should address shortages in weapons stockpiles by sharing production with South Korea and Japan, saying, "If we advance trilateral defense cooperation among the three countries and then talk with Kim Jong-un, we will all be in a stronger position."
"Possible Trilateral U.S.-China-Russia Meeting at APEC"
Amid expectations that a U.S.-North Korea summit will be pursued around the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting in Shenzhen, China, in November, one claim has emerged that the leaders of the United States, China and Russia could meet at APEC.
Yuri Ushakov, foreign policy adviser at Russia's Kremlin, said in an interview with Russian state broadcaster Vesti on the 1st that "President Xi Jinping said that President Donald Trump will attend the APEC leaders' meeting, and President Vladimir Putin will of course attend as an invited guest." He said, "If things proceed as planned, a meeting of the three could take place." The three countries have taken part in bilateral or multilateral talks together, but their leaders have never held a separate three-way summit.
Trump met Xi on the sidelines of the APEC leaders' meeting held in Gyeongju last October and is seen as highly likely to attend the Shenzhen APEC summit. Marat Berdyev, ambassador-at-large at Russia's Foreign Ministry, said in July that Putin also plans to lead the Russian delegation to China in person.
