The withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, the biggest obstacle to implementing the ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran, is imminent. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reviewing a plan to pull troops out of two areas in southern Lebanon.
According to Israeli media outlet Ynet on July 6, Israel is preparing to hand over two areas in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese army under the MOU between the United States and Iran. However, it will maintain most of the controlled territory within the security zone until Hezbollah disarms.
Netanyahu convened a small security cabinet late in the afternoon of July 5. He is checking the Lebanese army's readiness to enter and awaiting approval from US Central Command.
Iran assessed that the United States and Israel are in a "desperate situation." Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, head of Iran's judiciary, stressed that "the crimes committed by the United States and Israel cannot be forgotten," saying their calls for a ceasefire reflect their desperation. "It is the United States that proposes negotiations, and Israel that proposes a ceasefire," he said.
The same day, Israel's Channel 14 reported that the Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) had created a new unit called "Mukhtar" to attack high-ranking figures including US President Donald Trump. The unit is reportedly cooperating with Mexican drug cartels and Iranians abroad for assassination operations.
The Revolutionary Guard's new unit is a form of retaliation for the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. With Khamenei's funeral continuing for a third day, the Iranian people are demanding revenge. Hardline newspapers also unanimously called for punishing those responsible that day, stressing that "revenge is the people's right and the officials' duty."
Meanwhile, some observers say Iran's bargaining power will weaken as OPEC+ decided to raise crude oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in August. The previous day, US media outlets unanimously reported concerns over oversupply. US Vice President JD Vance said the reason the United States and Iran signed the MOU first last month before entering nuclear negotiations was "to fill up crude oil reserves and then see what cards we hold in negotiations." This means that as crude oil supply and demand recover, Iran's bargaining power declines.
