Rising Seoul home prices, combined with a planned overhaul of South Korea's comprehensive real estate holding tax, could push the tax into districts well outside the affluent Gangnam area by 2030, according to a new analysis.
Rising Seoul Prices Pull Non-Gangnam Districts Into Tax Range
A simulation model submitted to Rep. Shin Dong-wook of the People Power Party, a member of the National Assembly's National Policy Committee, by KB Kookmin Bank showed a sharp widening of the tax net, according to figures released on the 6th. The analysis covered the five most expensive complexes by KB market price in each of Seoul's 25 districts — 125 complexes in total — based on units of about 34 pyeong.
The tax currently applies to 78 complexes across 19 districts. Assuming Seoul apartment prices keep rising at 11% a year, the pace recorded between June 2025 and May 2026, the total would grow to 101 complexes in 22 districts by 2030 for owners who do not live in the home. Gwanak, Nowon and Jungnang districts, where all five sampled complexes are currently exempt, would see units fall under the tax for the first time, leaving most of Seoul covered apart from Gangbuk, Geumcheon and Dobong districts.
Of the 47 complexes now exempt, 23 would become subject to the tax by 2030 — four each in Gangseo, Gwanak, Guro and Eunpyeong districts, three in Seongbuk, two in Jongno, and one each in Nowon and Jungnang. A 35-pyeong unit at DMC SK View in Eunpyeong District pays no such tax now, but would begin to be taxed from 2029 for non-occupant owners and face a bill of about 1.13 million won by 2030, the analysis found.
The number of taxed complexes would dip briefly after the tax overhaul takes effect, then climb again as price gains accumulate. For owners who do not live in the home, the count falls from 78 this year to 68 in 2027, before rising to 82 in 2028, 94 in 2029 and 101 in 2030.
Tax Bills Could Climb Up to 8.9 Times in Five Years
The increase in the tax burden outpaced the growth in the number of complexes. Counting all households in the 125 complexes, the total levy would rise from 58.9 billion won this year to 526.2 billion won by 2030 for owners who do not live in the home — an increase of 8.9 times — or to 334.7 billion won, up 5.7 times, for owner-occupiers. The average bill per unit would climb from 951,338 won this year to 8,428,401 won for non-occupant owners, a 8.9-fold rise, and to 5,549,778 won for owner-occupiers, up 5.8 times.
The steepest increases came in districts outside Gangnam, where the tax burden had been smallest to begin with. Combined bills at the leading complexes in eight districts — Eunpyeong, Guro, Seongbuk, Gangseo, Dongdaemun, Gwanak, Nowon and Jungnang — would rise from about 720,000 won this year to about 40.58 million won by 2030 for non-occupant owners, a 56.6-fold increase.
Even if price gains slow to 5.5% a year, half the pace of the past 12 months, the tax burden would still grow substantially. Under that scenario, 82 complexes in 19 districts would be taxed in 2030 for owners not living in the home, with all four newly taxed complexes located in Gangseo District. The total levy across the 125 complexes would reach 292.6 billion won, about five times the current figure, for non-occupant owners, and 171.9 billion won, up 2.9 times, for owner-occupiers.
Godeok Graceium in Gangdong District offers a case in point. A 34-pyeong unit there faces a bill of about 570,000 won this year, but that would jump about fivefold to roughly 2.88 million won by 2030 for a non-occupant owner even at 5.5% annual price growth. At 11% growth, the figure would reach about 6.59 million won.
The simulation reflects the government's tax overhaul proposal and its revised version, which from 2027 would set the basic deduction at 1.4 billion won for owner-occupiers and 1.2 billion won for those who do not live in the home, apply a fair market value ratio of 70% and cap year-on-year increases at 150%.
"The government's tax plan was revised in part, but it has brought great confusion to the property market," Shin said. "Going forward, this tax will effectively become a 'Seoul residents' tax' levied even on ordinary people who own a single home in the city."
