Independent lawmaker Han Dong-hoon has emerged as the top choice in a survey on suitability for South Korea's next president. Analysts say Han's profile has risen on the back of confirmation hearings and setbacks for the government, including an explosion in the Demilitarized Zone. Over the same period, positive assessments of President Lee Jae-myung's handling of state affairs fell into the 30% range for the first time since he took office.
In a survey of 1,010 adults aged 18 and over conducted nationwide on Sept. 28-29 by Ace Research at the request of Newsis and released on the 1st, Han posted 18.1%, the highest figure in the next-president suitability question. Kim Min-seok, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, followed with 15.2%, ahead of Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 10.5%, People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk at 10.2%, People Power Party lawmaker Lee Jin-sook at 8.1% and Kang Hoon-sik, the presidential chief of staff, at 7.9%. The 2.9 percentage point gap between Han and Kim was within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Han's upward trend also shows up in September surveys by Jowon C&I. In the poll conducted for Straight News on Aug. 22-24, Han stood fourth at 12.6%, behind Kim Min-seok at 15.5%, Oh at 14.5% and Jang at 13.9%. He then rose to 15.4% in the Sept. 5-7 survey, narrowing the gap with Kim to 0.6 percentage point. In the Sept. 19-21 survey, Han climbed to 18.1%, putting him 3.3 percentage points ahead of Kim at 14.8%.
The latest Ace Research survey showed Han with relatively strong numbers among People Power Party supporters and voters with no party affiliation. Among People Power Party supporters, Han drew 32.6%, ahead of Jang at 25.2% and Oh at 17.0%. Among unaffiliated voters, Han took 25.0%, above Oh at 15.2% and Kim at 10.4%. Among Democratic Party supporters, by contrast, Kim led with 31.2%, followed by Kang at 13.8% and former Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae at 11.9%.
Assessments of Lee's performance in office, meanwhile, declined. Positive ratings for the president came in at 39.1%, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous survey on Aug. 9-10. Negative ratings rose 7.7 percentage points to 59.2%. It is the first time since Lee took office that his positive rating has fallen into the 30% range in an Ace Research survey.
By region, Gwangju, Jeonnam and Jeonbuk recorded the highest positive rating at 49.4%, though that was down 21.9 percentage points from the previous survey. Incheon and Gyeonggi followed at 40.4%, Daejeon, Chungcheong and Sejong at 40.2%, Seoul at 39.4%, Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang at 37.9%, Gangwon and Jeju at 32.1%, and Daegu and North Gyeongsang at 27.4%.
From the Kim Seung-won Vetting to Judicial and Prosecution Reform
The starting point for Han's rising profile is widely seen as his vetting of Kim Seung-won, the former nominee for justice minister. Early last month, Han raised allegations that Kim had lobbied over approval of a clinical trial for a new drug, then released a recording of a phone call with a broker and text messages exchanged between officials at the drug safety ministry. Even after Kim withdrew, the dispute over the allegations continued, and analysts said Han had emerged as the opposition's main attacker during the confirmation season.
He then kept up a line of activity aimed directly at the government both inside and outside the National Assembly, raising his visibility. After taking part in interpellation of the government on the 10th, he took issue with the fact that a staffer from the prime minister's office had asked a question at a news conference without identifying their affiliation, and the office removed the staffer from duties. Prime Minister Han Seong-sook also apologized in the National Assembly over the episode. Han publicly pushed back after the phrase "Han Dong-hoon OUT" was spotted in a notebook belonging to Democratic Party leader Kim Min-seok, extending his clashes with the party leadership. The repeated scenes of Han directly rebutting and confronting on each issue drew the political world's attention to him, analysts said.
Broadening his front to judicial and prosecution reform also played a part. In the controversy over Supreme Court Chief Justice Jo Hee-de's renomination of a Supreme Court justice candidate, Han stressed judicial independence and the separation of powers, sharply criticizing calls within parts of the Democratic Party to impeach Jo. He then took issue with writer Rhyu Si-min's remarks on prosecution reform and the presidential office's response to them, adding his voice to the debate on prosecution reform. By widening his range of comment beyond personnel matters to major policy issues including the judiciary, the prosecution and national security, Han has grown in stature as an opposition figure standing against the government and the ruling party, analysts said.
He also moved into on-the-ground politics after an explosion in the DMZ during the Chuseok holiday. Han staged a one-person protest in front of the defense ministry for three consecutive days from the 24th to the 26th of last month, demanding a prompt on-site investigation, and alleged that South Korea's military had declined a request for an investigation by the United Nations Command. It marked a shift from his previous reliance on news conferences and social media toward visiting sites in person. The Democratic Party read the move as an effort to sustain his political presence, but even within the People Power Party there were public assessments that Han had played a significant role in the vetting of Kim Seung-won, pointing to a mood in which his political standing is acknowledged across party lines.
His current position as an independent, at a distance from the People Power Party, has also worked to highlight his separate course, according to some analyses. Without the need to coordinate views with a party, Han has been able to put out messages quickly on personnel, judicial, prosecution and security issues, generating exposure that sets him apart from other opposition figures.
The Ace Research survey was conducted using an automated response system with a structured questionnaire, drawing entirely on a wireless random digit dialing sample. The response rate was 2.7%. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Detailed results and survey methodology are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
