With the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, President Donald Trump is expected to seek diplomatic achievements to showcase, according to analysts. The prolonged war with Iran has made a breakthrough all the more urgent. Trump has recently been laying the groundwork by highlighting his personal rapport with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on social media, prompting speculation that he could announce a summit with Pyongyang at an unexpected moment.
Kim Yong-hyun, director of Dongguk University's Institute for North Korean Studies and vice president for academic affairs, said in an interview with The Seoul Economic Daily on the 14th that "the chances are high that the two sides will meet within this year, since Kim Jong-un has as much to gain from a summit as Trump does." Kim earned his doctorate in political science from Dongguk University in 2002 and has served as a professor in the university's department of North Korean studies since 2006. Under the Moon Jae-in administration, he served as a policy adviser to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and as chair of the Ministry of Unification's policy advisory committee, and under the current government he serves on the policy planning subcommittee of the Ministry of National Defense's policy advisory committee. He recently published a book analyzing the North Korean system, "The Origins of North Korea's Militarization."
Kim said both Washington and Pyongyang need a summit. "Trump cannot ignore the fact that he has no diplomatic achievements to show ahead of the November midterms, and he needs to quiet criticism of his handling of state affairs," he said. On North Korea, he said, "Kim Jong-un will also feel the need to achieve economic growth through negotiations with the United States." He added that the meeting could take place in North Korea as a surprise, arguing that Trump's fondness for showmanship makes it entirely feasible once security concerns are resolved. "There is a possibility we will see a photograph of the two leaders shaking hands in North Korea," he said. "If it is held there, the most likely venue would not be the capital, Pyongyang, but Kalma Airport in Wonsan or downtown Wonsan."
As a path forward for U.S.-North Korea relations, he saw a strong possibility of a "small deal" in which the two sides find compromises in stages. A small deal is a limited arms-control arrangement that would freeze nuclear facilities such as those at Yongbyon and block further development of nuclear weapons. The failure of the Singapore summit during Trump's first term is widely attributed to the gap between the two sides over a "big deal" that would have traded the complete dismantlement of the North's nuclear program for regime guarantees and the full lifting of sanctions. "Neither side trusts the other," Kim said. "If you demand comprehensive and complete denuclearization from North Korea, it will not come to the table." He added: "The United States could offer an end-of-war declaration and a peace treaty to guarantee the security of the North Korean system, while North Korea could offer to halt production of highly enriched uranium, the material for nuclear warheads, under monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Both sides need to work through continued negotiations to find what they can give and take, which is why a small deal is appropriate."
He expects a U.S.-North Korea summit to have a positive effect on security on the Korean Peninsula. Inter-Korean relations remain marked by military tension amid a breakdown in dialogue. In December 2023, Kim Jong-un defined relations between the two Koreas as hostile relations between two separate states. North Korea is also fortifying the demilitarized zone by installing barriers and laying mines. "There is no mechanism to ease tensions between the two Koreas or to resolve accidental clashes in border areas such as the Northern Limit Line in the West Sea," Kim said. He also stressed that a summit could help reverse skepticism about unification. According to a second-quarter public opinion survey released in July by the National Unification Advisory Council, 64.1% of respondents said unification was "necessary." That is close to the 64.0% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023, the lowest since 2015, indicating weak public conviction about the need for unification. "Indifference toward unification among people in their 20s and 30s is growing," Kim said. "If a U.S.-North Korea summit brings a thaw to the Korean Peninsula, public attitudes toward unification could change as well."
As a long-term approach to improving inter-Korean relations, he proposed the principle of "gudongjoni" — seeking common ground while setting aside differences, or pursuing shared interests while leaving minor differences intact. "The gap between the two Koreas has widened too much, so narrowing it is important," he said. "Both sides should join hands for peace without being too greedy."
