Even on June 2, the final day of official campaigning for the ninth local elections, neither ruling nor opposition leadership was able to claim a clear advantage, focusing instead on monitoring the flow of contested races nationwide. While early in the campaign some analyses suggested the Democratic Party would sweep 15 of the 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial races—all but North Gyeongsang Province—the late-stage rallying of conservative supporters and a growing "check-and-balance" sentiment have led both parties to designate six to eight battleground areas for an all-out push. Seoul, Busan and South Gyeongsang Province, jointly identified as toss-ups by the Democratic Party and the People Power Party, are expected to be the decisive battlegrounds.
The Democratic Party is confident of winning more than 10 races. Although several regions have shifted into toss-up territory compared with earlier in the campaign, the party believes its overall edge remains intact. Internally, "12 plus alpha" is being set as a realistic target.
Cho Seung-rae, head of the Democratic Party's general election campaign committee, said in a press briefing that day, "Our analysis that six metropolitan races are tight remains unchanged," adding, "However, Ulsan appears to be moving in a somewhat more stable direction thanks to the candidate unification effect." In a radio interview, he also said, "Seoul, Busan, Daegu, South Gyeongsang, Ulsan and North Jeolla are tight races." The only region the Democratic Party clearly classifies as a likely loss is the North Gyeongsang gubernatorial race.
The People Power Party views around eight regions, including South Chungcheong and Gangwon, as battlegrounds. The party expects to firmly hold Daegu and North Gyeongsang (TK) and is hoping to win up to five of the contested races. A senior People Power Party official told reporters that day, "Seoul, Busan, South Chungcheong, South Gyeongsang and Gangwon are extremely close, and we also have a chance in Daejeon, North Chungcheong and Ulsan." While the Democratic Party considers Gangwon a stronghold, the People Power Party's internal polling suggests it has entered toss-up territory. In the Busan-Ulsan-South Gyeongsang region, the People Power Party broadly senses it has a fighting chance, except for the Ulsan mayoral race, which has tilted against it following candidate unification between the Democratic Party and the Progressive Party.
With the ruling party widely expected to lead in the total number of metropolitan posts secured, the outcome of this election is likely to hinge on results in key battlegrounds rather than on overall numbers. Whichever side delivers stronger results in ultra-close races such as Seoul, Busan and South Gyeongsang is likely to be regarded as the de facto winner. Having entered the election with the wind at its back, the Democratic Party must secure Seoul—the biggest prize—and produce visible gains in the Yeongnam region. For the People Power Party, winning Seoul and holding on to its core strongholds in TK and Busan-South Gyeongsang (PK) would allow it to claim that public sentiment to check the government and ruling party has been confirmed.
Both parties have classified the Seoul mayoral race as a must-win and are waging an all-out battle. Democratic Party candidate Jung Won-oh, backed by the full force of his party, and People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon, who carries the incumbency advantage, continued their "hill-by-hill" campaigning across all 25 of Seoul's autonomous districts. Democratic Party leader Jung Cheong-rae joined Jung's final rally at Cheonggye Plaza to lend his support.
The South Chungcheong gubernatorial race is also drawing close attention. Both Jung and People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk have viewed Chungcheong sentiment as the bellwether of national elections, devoting more time to the region than any other during the campaign. The Democratic Party believes its candidate Park Soo-hyun has taken the lead, while the People Power Party judges that its candidate Kim Tae-heum has entered a "golden cross" zone. With Daejeon and North Chungcheong already tilting against him, Jang would find it hard to escape blame for an election defeat if he loses South Chungcheong as well—his hometown and the location of his constituency (Boryeong, South Chungcheong). Symbolically, the Chungcheong region has historically served as the casting vote in nationwide elections. For these reasons, Jang held his final campaign rally in Cheonan, South Chungcheong, putting all his energy into rallying his base.
The Daegu mayoral race, where the ruling party appeared to hold an edge early on, is now seen as having largely flipped amid a conservative rally. Even Democratic Party lawmaker Park Jie-won said, "We see Daegu and South Gyeongsang as difficult."
Beyond the ruling-versus-opposition dynamic, the North Jeolla gubernatorial race—a traditional Democratic Party stronghold—is also drawing intense interest. Independent candidate Kim Kwan-young, expelled from the Democratic Party over allegations of cash distribution, is performing strongly on the back of his solid local base, locking in a razor-thin contest with Democratic Party candidate Lee Won-taek. Given that leader Jung had invested heavily in North Jeolla even before assuming the party leadership, observers say that any sign of voter defection here could intensify scrutiny of the leadership's nomination process. The Democratic Party's fair election headquarters filed a complaint that day with the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency accusing Kim of disseminating false information under the Public Official Election Act, keeping up its checks until the very end.
