The South Korean government has concluded that the projectile that struck HMM's Nammu was "likely an Iranian-made anti-ship missile." While it remains unclear which faction within Iran carried out the attack or whether it was deliberate, the finding adds friction to a relationship Seoul has carefully sought to keep cordial. Analysts say it will also become harder for Korea to ignore mounting U.S. pressure to contribute to security in the Strait of Hormuz.
First Vice Foreign Minister Park Yoon-joo said at a briefing at the Government Complex Seoul on the 27th, "An analysis of the wreckage of the two projectiles that struck the Nammu has led us to conclude that they were most likely Iranian-developed 'Noor'-series anti-ship missiles." He cited as evidence that the projectile's engine was a turbojet engine bearing the markings of an Iranian manufacturer and that the warhead's shape and paint scheme resembled the Iranian-made Noor. Park added, "They appear to be missiles produced about 20 to 30 years ago."
The Nammu was anchored near the Strait of Hormuz on the 4th (local time) when an explosion and fire broke out. Initially, a malfunction of the vessel itself was considered, but penetration marks on the stern's outer plating and CCTV footage led investigators to conclude that two unidentified projectiles struck the stern at intervals of about one minute. Engine fragments were then brought back to Korea for detailed analysis, leading to the conclusion that they were Iranian-made missiles.
Of the two missiles, the first warhead failed to detonate properly while the second exploded. Some observers had raised the possibility that the weapon was Iran's "Shahed 136" drone, but 23 days after the incident it was confirmed that the attack was carried out with anti-ship missiles and was Iran's doing.
The government believes the attack on the Nammu was carried out either by Iran's regular navy or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. However, which of the two was responsible and whether the strike was deliberate remain unclear. Park said, "Multiple pieces of evidence point to Iran," but added, "It is very difficult to pinpoint a specific actor within Iran, and proving intent is also hard." Rear Admiral Ryu Yoon-sang, who joined the briefing, said, "Even if the attacker's exact intent cannot be known, from a commander's perspective the missiles appear to have been fired with the intent to inflict damage."
Attention now turns to how Korea's diplomatic authorities will navigate the dispute with Iran. After the briefing, Park summoned Iranian Ambassador to Korea Saeed Koozechi to lodge a strong protest over the attack and demand responsible measures including steps to prevent recurrence. Koozechi, asked by reporters after the meeting, repeated Iran's existing position, saying, "We deny everything regarding (Iran's involvement in) this matter."
There is speculation that Tehran will stick to strategies of denying responsibility and shifting blame. Although various circumstances after the Nammu incident had pointed to Iran as the likely perpetrator, Iran has consistently denied involvement.
Ban Kil-joo, head of the Center for Nonproliferation and International Security at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, predicted, "The Iranian government may resort to evasion tactics, such as claiming that the attack was the work of a rogue faction outside its control." He added, "At the same time, it could shift blame by pointing out that the Nammu did not follow Iranian government instructions." Ban stressed, "Even if it was not a deliberate act by the Iranian government, Iran must be clearly held accountable for its failure to put proper controls in place."
Some observers say U.S. pressure on Korea to share roles as an ally is likely to intensify. President Donald Trump has been pressing allies through initiatives such as the Maritime Freedom of Commerce (MFC), demanding contributions including the dispatch of naval forces, vessel escorts and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
There are also calls for the Korean government to step up its involvement in maritime security in the strait following the incident. Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Office for Security Strategy at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, stressed, "If a ceasefire extension or armistice between the United States and Iran is reached, we should actively participate in mine-clearing operations." Kim Tae-hyung, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Soongsil University, said, "This incident gives the government greater leverage in talks with Iran on participating in operations," adding, "The need to take part in international operations has grown."
